Apple WWDC 2022 – Carmageddon?

Apple declares war on short-term loan providers and car makers.

  • Apple produced an ordinary performance but saw announcements that challenge both the vehicle makers and the fintech industry.
  • However, there was nothing on the Metaverse clearly indicating that Apple is far from ready with anything confirming its position with Google and Microsoft at the back of the pack in RFM’s Metaverse research.
  • Apple ploughed through its three main operating systems and one chipset with updates and features that had a few interesting tweaks but largely brought it up to date with productivity rival Microsoft and ecosystem rival Google.
    • First iOS 16: where the biggest upgrade was a rethink of the lock screen bringing customisability and widgets for easier access to data and events.
    • Elsewhere, there was a series of tweaks and upgrades that make the iPhone easier to use and more competitive when compared to what Google is able to offer with its first-class AI.
    • Maps, media sharing and notifications all received incremental upgrades but the areas of real interest were in wallet, payments and CarPlay which I have covered below.
    • Second, MacOS: Here, the headline was the new M2 chip which uses TSMC’s 2nd generation 5nm process and has 25% more transistors than the M1 but only a slightly larger footprint.
    • This gives an 18% increase in CPU performance over the M1 at the same level of power consumption.
    • Similar improvements over the M1 were touted in graphics performance, making this a decent upgrade to the older chipset.
    • This will be available in an all-new MacBook Air which is thinner, lighter and more expensive than ever as well as the new MacBook Pro 13 inch.
    • macOS has been upgraded to a new version called Ventura where the focus is clearly on competing on productivity and ensuring that the Apple ecosystem of products works more seamlessly together.
    • This is key to driving loyalty to the ecosystem and I expect to see Apple continue to mash this button as hard as it can.
    • Third, WatchOS 9: comes with better data analysis from multiple sensors to offer coaching on running style and performance as well as upgrades to sleep tracking which brings it into line with other sleep trackers on the market.
    • Fourth: Home and Car: were by far the most interesting announcements.
    • HomeKit has been open-sourced to a standard called Matter in an admission that Apple’s closed proprietary approach does not always work.
    • The idea is to get many more products to work with Apple devices in the smart home and offer a better challenge to the dominant smart home ecosystem offered by Amazon.
    • Apple has also decided to extend CarPlay into the instrument cluster which adds the ability for users to access vehicle functions and data without ever leaving CarPlay.
    • Despite saying that car makers are excited about this new upgrade, I think that any vehicle maker in its right mind will feel precisely the opposite.
    • This is because this move further pushes vehicle makers out of their own devices and accelerates their transition to commoditised smartphones on wheels.
    • I see this as a declaration of war on the OEMs and elevates Apple to be just as threatening as Google to any digital aspirations that vehicle makers have.
    • I will cover the CarPlay announcements in more detail on Thursday 9th September.
    • Fifth: payments: Apple also declared war on short-term fintech loan providers like Affirm and Klarna with the launch of Apple Pay Later.
    • This function will allow users to pay for purchases with 4 equal, interest-free payments over 6 weeks and will incur no fees.
    • This is really bad news for these players who likely now face tough competition from a huge and well-financed player.
    • Sixth, The Metaverse: of which there was not a single mention in either hardware or software despite feverish speculation in the tech and financial media.
    • This adds weight to my view that Apple is not even close to having anything ready for market and I am not expecting hardware before 2025.
    • The Metaverse remains a huge threat for Apple if it takes off in a big way, but it is so far away that there is no pressure for Apple to address this now.
    • Hence, I do not see its silence on this topic as an issue.
  • This keynote launched more hardware than I was expecting but overall represents another steady upgrade to the best-in-class user experience that Apple uses to keep its users loyal.
  • Many of the announcements bring it into line with that offered by others, but it manages to do it in a way that provides a better user experience overall.
  • iOS and macOS continue to creep closer and closer together and I expect that pretty soon they will be one and the same although with slightly different tweaks like iOS and iPad OS.
  • Apple has done enough here to keep its edge and I still do not see any viable challenge to its dominance of the high-end where it lives.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.