BlackBerry – Fidelity free zone

BlackBerry needs something else to prevent its users from jumping ship.

• BlackBerry’s move to make BBM available on other platform is incredibly risky unless there is something else that will ensure that BlackBerry users stay faithful.
• BBM is also no longer about developed markets as those users have long ditched BlackBerry and gone elsewhere.
• This is about emerging markets and first time users of smartphones.
• BlackBerry has a strong user base with 60m users of which 70% use it daily and for a sustained period of time but almost all of them are in emerging markets.
• By making BBM available on other platforms it can benefit from a substantial network effect as this user base encourages first time smartphone buyers to download and use the app.
• As long as the app remains free, I can see potential for huge take up of BBM in emerging markets.
• That’s great but how can BlackBerry prevent users from ditching their BlackBerry device when it comes to upgrade as the biggest incentive to stay has now been removed?
• Why would a user not leave? Rival platforms offer a better user experience, decent applications and much wider device choice.
• BlackBerry devices by comparison are expensive, limited in their range and have a very poor application experience.
• There are two ways that this could be achieved.
  • One. Ensure that the BBM app on the BlackBerry device works better and has better features than on other devices.
  • Two. At some point in the future when the user base is huge and hopelessly addicted, withdraw third party support and thereby force users back onto BlackBerry devices.
• This is exactly what all of the other handset makers who are in discussions to pre-load BBM onto their devices will be concerned about.
• Many of them have already experienced this problem in one guise or another and it will not be new to them.
• Therefore I can see rival makers requiring a huge amount of reassurance from BlackBerry to go down this path.
• Pre-loading is always a good thing as pre-loaded apps tend to get used far more and work a lot better than those that are downloaded after purchase.
• Unless BlackBerry has one of these two things in mind, the risk of losing all its users and becoming a tiny fraction of its current self is very real indeed.
• BlackBerry’s proposition remains far weaker than Nokia’s and as a result has a much lower chance of recovery.
• Nokia is by far my favourite choice of the recovery stories.