Alphabet – Goodbye blue sky pt. II.

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Homeless robots find permanent shelter.

  • Alphabet has reached a deal to sell both Boston Dynamics and Schaft to SoftBank leaving it more focused on its core business of collection and monetisation of Internet data.
  • Boston Dynamics is a robotics company that specialises in robots that are autonomous as far as navigating and adjusting to their immediate environment.
  • SoftBank is also acquiring Schaft from Google which is a humanoid robotics company that was spun out of the University of Tokyo.
  • These robots can move around with relative ease but how they would be able generate value for Alphabet shareholders was always unclear.
  • At the end of the day Alphabet is a data and analytics company whose objective is to categorise and understand every piece of digital information that users generate and to sell those insights to marketers.
  • Every other piece of hardware that Alphabet makes from Google Home to Pixel and Internet Balloons, have the capacity to collect huge amounts of data and thereby generate can value to the core business.
  • Autonomous robots that can carry out physical tasks do not generate data about users because they are designed to replace them making them a bad fit inside Alphabet.
  • Furthermore, the robotics effort at Google was the brainchild of Andy Rubin and his departure, combined with the much greater focus on fiscal discipline, meant that the robots became homeless inside Alphabet.
  • I have long believed that Boston Dynamics will be much more at home inside a company that can make use of them.
  • Good examples of this are Amazon and Alibaba for logistics or someone like DHL or UPS.
  • Softbank is a good example of this but also has the benefit of a very long-term mindset when it comes to its strategy.
  • SoftBank already produces the Pepper robot which is supposed to be able to read human emotions and help shoppers when they enter a shop or place of business.
  • I met Pepper when wandering the halls of Mobile World Congress and CES and have to admit I was not that impressed by what it was capable of.
  • Consequently, it looks like SoftBank needs to really beef up its robotics expertise if it wants to be a player in this space which is what these two acquisitions should start to accomplish.
  • Hence it looks like this acquisition will not be part of the $93bn Vision Fund but instead be part of SoftBank itself.
  • Boston Dynamics, Schaft and I suspect SoftBank’s own robotics division have been struggling to find ways to generate revenue necessitating a home with a very long-term view.
  • That home used to be Alphabet, now it is SoftBank.
  • The sale of these two businesses will further boost Alphabet’s short term financial performance but I continue to think that all of the recent fundamental improvement in Alphabet is more than discounted in the share price.
  • Hence, I continue to prefer Tencent, Baidu and Microsoft.

Essential Products – Not essential.

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Andy Rubin still works for Google. 

  • Essential Products Inc has launched a series of products aimed at creating an ecosystem but none of them do anything or enable anything that is desperately new.
  • Consequently, the real beneficiary from another nice looking, easy to use phone will be Google whose ecosystem will be front and centre of the flagship device.
  • Essential Products Inc. was founded by Android creator Andy Rubin and has launched two devices and two accessories in a bid to stitch together the fragmented smart home space.

Phone

  • The Phone is similar to the Galaxy s8 although its screen is lower resolution, not waterproof and the battery has a slightly lower capacity.
  • Its one major area of differentiation is that the chassis is made from injected Titanium and has a ceramic back, potentially making it much more resistant to being dropped and scratched.
  • When it comes to screen protection, both are using Gorilla Glass 5 meaning that resistance to screen smashing should be about the same.
  • It also has two pins on the back (much like the Moto Mods concept) to which accessories can be attached.
  • The API for the accessory pins will be made available to developers to create their own devices to attach to the phone.
  • However, it has the price to match at $699 compared to $750 for the Galaxy s8 which is where I think the trouble will begin.
  • Phone is nice looking but I can’t see how it does anything that is not already available and outside of chassis resistance, Samsung gives more hardware bang for the buck.

Home

  • Essential products has also launched a voice activated home controller that aims to bring the smart home together in one place.
  • This is something that the smart home badly needs as the Alexa user experience is dire and hardly any products and services work with Google Home.
  • This product is different for two main reasons:
    • First: it is not designed to play music unlike other offerings although it does has a small speaker like the Echo Dot.
    • Instead, it is aimed at bringing all of the home’s devices together into a single place to manage them in an easy and fun to use way.
    • This device is also able to integrate these products such that smart devices can work together in new, fun and potentially very useful ways.
    • For example, when the timer goes off, the room’s lights can be flashed on and off rather than the generic alarm bell sound that everyone else uses.
    • Second: Home has a small screen on the top that is designed to enhance communication and interaction with the user.
    • RFM research (see here) has found that voice communication with machines is very far from being good enough to work effectively without a screen for output.
    • Consequently, this configuration makes a lot of sense.
  • The device runs its own OS called Ambient OS but Essential intends to open this up completely such that anyone can write functionality for the product.
  • This device takes a massive risk because 70% of the usage of devices in this category is as a Bluetooth speaker.
  • Consequently, there is a sizeable risk that this device will not appeal to the majority of users looking to buy something in this category.
  • Another big issue is the source of the AI that will be running Home as this will be the heart and soul of this product and the AI in Ambient OS currently looks as dubious as Bixby (see here).

Accessories.

  • Essential products has launched a charging plate for the Phone that connects through the two pins as well as a 360 degree camera.
  • I think that the charging plate is pretty useless as wireless charging is starting to come of age and inclusion of one of the standards in the device would have enabled a good user experience with products already present in the market and in users’ hands.
  • For example, because the Galaxy S8 supports Qi charging it will work with any compatible pad.

Take Home Message.

  • When I originally wrote on Essential Products (see here), my view was that it needed to produce must have devices and in that regard, I think it has failed.
  • The Phone is a Google Ecosystem device with a few nice features but less bells and whistles than the Samsung Galaxy S8 for almost the same price.
  • The Home has the most potential but it is taking an awful risk in that it is not addressing by far the biggest use case and has dubious AI.
  • It will also be dependent on third party developers meaning that it will need volume but even in its best case it is not going to out-ship Google Assistant or Amazon Alexa.
  • Consequently, I remain unconvinced with regards to what is special and different about Essential Products and suspect that many consumer electronics buyers will feel the same way.
  • Differentiation in hardware is extremely difficult meaning that Andy Rubin needs to have some software tricks up his sleeve that he is yet to show.
  • Failing that, it seems that this company will end up enriching Google more than itself.

DJI – Brains not brawn

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The spark at DJI is in its software prowess.

  • DJI has launched a new drone which I think clearly demonstrates this company’s unique ability to take on its US rivals and come up with a better product.
  • DJI has launched the Spark which is a palm sized drone that looks to be so easy to fly that the controller is an optional accessory.
  • The Spark is equipped with a 1080p 12MP camera and is controllable with a smartphone app but most importantly it sports a level of autonomy that makes it easy for anyone to fly.
  • Its chief rival in this space is the Dobby drone from Xerotech, which is pretty easy to fly using a smartphone but does not offer the level of sophistication that the Spark does.
  • Specifically, I am referring to the ability to completely control the drone using hand gestures and a series of autonomous modes that are aimed at still and video selfies.
  • This level of autonomy has been under development for quite sometime and DJI continues to demonstrate that it is ahead of all its competitors, including those based in US.
  • This is extremely rare for a Shenzhen-based hardware company which tend to turn out very cheap copy-cat devices and have no understanding of software at all.
  • The difference between Chinese designed devices and the much more expensive versions sold by US companies tends to be found in software functionality and reliability.
  • This is why the US versions still sell well in developed markets as consumers can recognise and are willing to pay up for quality products.
  • DJI completely bucks this trend as it is turning out better products than all its competitors making it a worthy leader of the still small, but growing drone market.
  • What is unusual about DJI is that its differentiation is now rapidly becoming based on its software which offers the best level of autonomy currently available.
  • This has really come to light in its two most recent products, the Mavic Pro and now the Spark.
  • The Spark is DJI’s first attempt at the consumer market as the device is priced at $499 compared to all of its other products that are above $1,000.
  • For its more expensive products it is not so important for them to have a high level of autonomy as they tend to be purchased by users who are either professionals or experienced flyers.
  • This is aimed at those that have never picked up a drone before and as long as it lives up to its billing it should be very easy and great fun to fly.
  • Most of all, the autonomy should allow selfies to be taken where the “pilot” is participating in the scene rather than flying the drone.
  • DJI is continuing to stay ahead of its competitors and is the first Chinese company to lead a segment of consumer electronics rather than be a fast copier.
  • If it was listed, I would be looking at DJI with great interest.

SoftBank Vision Fund – UB40

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Pressure to employ capital is the biggest risk.

  • SoftBank has announced that the first round of its $100bn Vision fund has closed with $93bn in committed capital but the problem now is going to be how to quickly put this huge amount of money to work.
  • At $93bn, the SoftBank Vision Fund ranks as the third largest private equity fund globally, behind KKR with $98bn and Blackstone which has $311bn in assets under management.
  • The investment strategy will be wide with the fund looking to target long-term investments in both private and public companies right the way across the technology sector.
  • The one exception appears to be semiconductors but the fund will have some exposure there if it takes up its option to take a 25% stake in ARM.
  • The fund is clearly intending on having a significant influence on the activities of the companies in which it invests as the aim is to supply growth capital and accelerate the development of disruptive technologies.
  • I am pretty sure that this will also involve turn-around situations as most disruptive technology and requirement for growth capital is to be found in small companies.
  • With the Vision fund’s lowest investment size at $100m, start-ups and small companies are clearly off the table
  • The main investors are SoftBank ($28bn), the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ($45bn estimate) and Mubadala from United Arab Emirates ($15bn estimate).
  • I estimate that between them they make up 95% of the funds committed.
  • Apple, Qualcomm, Sharp and Foxconn Technology Group make up the other 5%.
  • The fund will shave the option to acquire a 25% stake in ARM ($8.2bn) as well as some or all of SoftBank’s investments in Guardian Health, Intelsat, NVIDIA, OneWeb and SoFi.
  • It is worthy of note that SoftBank’s investments in Alibaba or Flipkart which fit the criteria for the Vision Fund do not appear to be included as potential contributions.
  • If the fund decides to take these investments, they will be offset against SoftBank’s $28bn commitment to the fund.
  • I suspect that the biggest issue that the fund will face will be pressure to find good investments.
  • Rivals such as KKR, Blackstone etc. have grown their asset base over time but here the Vision Fund has $93bn at its disposal from day 1.
  • Consequently, its main shareholders will be wanting to see their money quickly put to work opening the door to making rapid but sub-optimal investments.
  • I hope that SoftBank’s recent (on ongoing) experience in India will be heeded as an example of what happens when too much capital chases too little paper on a wave of hype and optimism.
  • Common sense indicates that the shareholders will not be putting up all of the capital on day 1 but as the investment opportunities arise, they will contribute their share as per the commitments that they have made.
  • This is made all the more likely as I understand that PIF will be raising the money from other investments that it is holding and Mubadala did not have $15bn of spare cash on its balance sheet at the end of 2016.
  • Although the Vision Fund is the third largest private equity fund globally, it is the largest that is dedicated to technology and consequently, it should be a major player in sector going forward.

Juicero – Cautionary tale.

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A cautionary tale for budding entrepreneurs.

  • While Juicero is no Theranos, it has got itself into a life-threatening mess that I suspect has come about solely because it got its business model wrong.
  • Juicero is a Silicon Valley company that claims to offer the kind of juice purchased in a store but prepared freshly at home and is totally mess-free.
  • This works through a cold press that can deliver up to 4 tons of force to squeeze the liquid from pre-prepared pouches of fruits and vegetables that the company also sells.
  • The press can only make juice from the pouches which combined with an app and a database, is able to keep track of the produce the user has, when it will expire and send alerts and so on.
  • The juicer is priced at a pretty punchy $400 (reduced from an eyewatering $700) with each pouch selling for $5-$8 meaning that each glass of juice is going to cost somewhere in the region of $7-$8 depending on how long the machine lasts.
  • With each pouch delivering about 9oz of juice, this adds up to $0.83 per ounce which is broadly in line with the top-of-the-line juice companies in Silicon Valley (see here) which charge around $0.86 per oz.
  • I think that the business model is based around breaking even on the pouches and the service with most of the margin coming from the machine.
  • This explains why the company will only sell the pouches to owners of the machine as without it, the business model would collapse.
  • This is where the problems really begin because it turns out that it is possible to produce a perfectly good glass of juice using nothing but bare hands (see here).
  • A female reporter was able to extract 8.5oz of juice from one of the pouches faster than the machine could produce 9.0oz
  • NASA has measured that the human hands of the average male are capable of producing around 90Kg of force (see here).
  • This means that the other 3.5 tons of force that the machine can produce only increases production by 6% demonstrating that Juicero is massively over specified for the task for which it has been designed.
  • Furthermore, if there is a power cut or the Internet is down, no juice is produced whereas hands work all the time and can even offer juicing on the move with limitless battery life.
  • This is where I think the company has gotten its business model wrong.
  • I think it should have followed the tried and tested printer and cartridge model where the printer is sold at break even or a loss and the money is made on the cartridges.
  • I suspect Juicero could have designed the press to deliver 200Kg of force rather than 4 tons with no perceptible difference in performance other than a much cheaper price.
  • If the company had then sold the device for $50 rather than its starting price of $700, I doubt whether anyone would have even bothered to try and squeeze the pouches by hand.
  • This way the company could have hoped to have achieved much greater volume and in doing so it would have been able to get better prices from its suppliers and make good margins on the pouches.
  • The problem now is that everybody knows that the Juicero machine is surplus to requirements for everyone who can read an expiry date.
  • Hence, a change in strategy is urgently required.
  • Juicero offers convenience and in that regard it may have a future as a subscription service for very high quality juice that one prepares at home.
  • However, it will have to confess its shortcomings, ditch the expensive machine and reorient itself around the printer / cartridge model with something much cheaper.
  • On its current trajectory, it is likely to be squeezed out of existence.

 

Samsung – Edge dancer pt. II

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I think Bixby will struggle against Google Assistant.

  • Samsung has launched its offensive on the digital assistant market but I think it will still be dancing around the edge of the main act on the Galaxy s8: Google Assistant.
  • Samsung has announced that its new digital assistant, Bixby will be present on the Samsung Galaxy 8 with its own dedicated key on the side of the device.
  • Bixby promises to offer:
    • First, completeness: This promises to give users complete control of enabled apps rather than the few tasks offered by other assistants.
    • Second contextual awareness: Samsung is promising that Bixby will be aware of the context within which it has been triggered, making it more relevant and useful.
    • I suspect that it will do this using the hooks in Android that Google wrote to enable Google Assistant to do the same thing.
    • Third natural language recognition: Bixby should be able to understand complex, multi-part questions as well as prompt the user to clarify the pieces that it does not understand.
  • These features are very similar to those promised by Viv, the artificial intelligence company that Samsung purchased in October 2016 which is clearly the source of this product.
  • If Bixby can truly fulfil the promises that it is making, then it will almost certainly will be better than Google Assistant.
  • However, I think that this is a very big ask given that RFM research has found that AI excellence to date has been a factor of time and data volume.
  • Viv was founded in 2012 and has no data from commercial products while Google has been crunching data for 20 years and has orders of magnitude more data than its nearest rival.
  • Consequently, I think that compared to this highly ambitious billing, Bixby is going to fall very far short of the promises that it has made.
  • Furthermore, Samsung’s delivery of Bixby is going to be hobbled by the 2014 agreement that it made with Google where it agreed not to compete in the ecosystem (see here).
  • This is why I suspect that Bixby has been relegated to a button on the side of the device whereas it will be Google Assistant that is sitting on the all-important home button.
  • As a result I think on the smartphone, Bixby will lose out to Google Assistant but on other devices it has some chance.
  • Samsung has a good portfolio of other electronic devices, which combined with its SmartThings offering, could allow Bixby to offer intelligent and intuitive control of other Samsung devices.
  • This could help Samsung to encourage greater ownership of Samsung devices across its range but again this will depend on how good Bixby really is.
  • Over 20% of all Google mobile searches are already done using voice meaning that many users are already conditioned to pressing the home button and asking as well as being used to Google’s quality of service.
  • Consequently, I think that the odds are heavily stacked against Samsung having much success with Bixby but as long as it can continue to outsell Huawei by more than 2 phones to 1, the profitability of its handset business should remain intact.
  • I still pretty cautious on Samsung as I am not convinced that the full fall-out from the Note 7 disaster has been felt in terms of market share, which is what makes the Galaxy s8 launch so important.
  • I prefer Baidu, Tencent and Microsoft.

 

Amazon vs. Google – Homefront pt. II.

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Amazon is pre-emptively moving to keep Google out.

  • Amazon is pulling out all of the stops to ensure that it is Alexa, rather than Google Assistant, that ends up becoming the nerve centre for controlling the smart home.
  • In its latest move, Amazon is offering credits for AWS that are likely to ensure that connecting one’s smart home device to Alexa remains free in almost every circumstance.
  • As the scope of Alexa improves and users can do more with Alexa, it is likely that creators of smart home devices will require more space on AWS that will require them to start paying Amazon.
  • Most device developers are small start-ups with very limited funds meaning that this will be a big incentive to do more with Alexa.
  • At the moment, the free tier gives developers 1m AWS Lamda requests and 750 hours of EC2 compute time per month.
  • Beyond that, developers end up incurring a monthly charge which is something that Amazon is wisely keen to avoid.
  • With this new program, Amazon is offering a one-time credit of $100 as well as $100 per month towards any charges that they incur as a result of usage of their devices.
  • This is likely to ensure that almost all developers of smart home devices will not have to pay anything to Amazon until they are generating so much usage that they are making plenty of money themselves.
  • I think that this is a very shrewd move as it encourages more developers to sign up to make their devices work with Alexa and also encourages them to make the skills deeper and more intuitive.
  • Currently, most skills are very basic and as a result they suffer from usability problems which in most cases makes it easier to turn the device on manually rather than using Alexa.
  • This looks like a pre-emptive move to keep Google at bay as I see Google making rapid moves to improve its Google Home developer program after being all but wiped out at CES 2017.
  • Even though Amazon has close to 10m devices installed in the houses of users compared to Google at 0.5m – 1m, the Google Home experience is so superior to Alexa that I still see a risk of Amazon losing this race (see here).
  • This is why I see Amazon doing everything that it can to show developers love and support which is something that to date, Google has badly neglected.
  • The result is that very few of the smart home device developers are making sure that their devices works with Google Home giving many users more reason go with Amazon’s Echo devices rather than Google.
  • Amazon is also very fortunate that the market’s view of Alexa is so positive as a side by side test of the Amazon Echo against Google Home shows how inferior Amazon is compared to Google.
  • This is why it is still Google’s battle to lose but Amazon is clearly doing everything that it can to ensure that it is Alexa rather than Google that dominates the potentially extremely lucrative market for intelligent home automation.
  • From an investment perspective, neither of these two companies are desperately appealing leaving me preferring Baidu, Microsoft and Tencent with Apple for long-term income based investors.

 

Intel – Auto ambition

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Intel must break out of the mould that success has cast for it.

  • The acquisition of Mobileye by Intel highlights both Intel’s determination not to miss the next big trend as well as the concentration of Google’s competitors around HERE.
  • Intel will buy Mobileye for $15.4bn and merge it with its existing autonomous driving business to create one of the leading supplier of autonomous driving systems.
  • Intel already has a substantial effort in this space but adding Mobileye gives it a very strong position in visual sensors and most importantly, gives it direct access to 80% of the automotive market.
  • These doors were already open for Intel but I think that going in with Mobileye will ensure that the automotive industry takes it much more seriously.
  • I think that missing the boat in mobile has damaged Intel’s reputation to the point where some potential customers think that Intel has little to offer beyond chips for PCs and chips for servers.
  • In reality, this is very far from the truth but dispelling that impression is one of the most important tasks that Intel faces over the next few years.
  • The fact that Intel will soon become one of the top 4 shareholders of HERE will also help in improving its credibility in both location and automotive.
  • This is because HERE is the only realistic alternative to Google in high definition maps for autonomous driving which are now recognised as essential for a car to drive itself.
  • Even Mobileye, which early in 2016 was adamant that a HD map was not needed, has caved in and is now working with HERE to use its HD map in its systems.
  • In addition, other ecosystems such as Tencent, Baidu, Facebook and Amazon are also working with HERE for their location data, all of which will benefit Intel as it tries to break the mould that the market has set for it.
  • Mobileye represents that second largest acquisition in Intel’s history underlining the need for semiconductor companies to move into markets beyond consumer electronics and PCs.
  • This is why Qualcomm is buying NXP and why Samsung is buying Harmon.
  • Intel has now armed itself with the potential to offer an end to end solution for autonomous driving but the key to success will be how well it can execute on that offering.
  • History is not in Intel’s side but I detect a change in the way Intel thinks about its place in the world that just might allow it to break the x86 mould that history has cast for it.

Smart Home – Back to front.

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Apple is losing badly despite offering the best user experience.

  • Apple has redesigned its HomeKit website (see here) in order to generate interest around its smart home offering but despite having the best experience, it remains a very distant third in developed markets.
  • HomeKit enables smart home devices to be controlled with Siri as well as the Apple’s own Home app that appeared with iOS10.
  • I think that Apple has three main problems with its offering for smart home:
    • First: Hardware. device makers need to install a piece of Apple hardware to enable them to work with HomeKit.
    • This adds a level of complexity and cost for device makers who in many instances are small companies with only a few employees and very limited resources.
    • Consequently, most have ignored HomeKit completely and simply written their own app for iOS devices that talks to the device directly over WiFi or Bluetooth.
    • Second: Data. Just like Digital Life services, HomeKit brings together multiple devices and enables them to work together.
    • The device makers get access to the data that their devices generate, but it is only Apple that gets to see the whole picture.
    • RFM research has found on multiple occasions that understanding the bigger picture is far more useful and offers a much greater monetisation opportunity than looking at data sets individually.
    • I think that this is why device makers who understand this concept generally decline to make their devices work with HomeKit or HealthKit.
    • Third: Device. Apple has no device within which Siri can reside within the home.
    • Usage of both Alexa and Google Home show that over 60% of all usage is generated when the user’s hands are busy with another task.
    • This makes the use case of Siri on a device that needs to be removed from the pocket not as easy or as intuitive as Alexa or Google Home.
    • Furthermore, both Alexa and Google Home can hear the user from a distance which also improves the use case within the home.
    • Hence I think it quite likely that Apple will launch a home speaker device of its own or enable third parties to embed Siri in their products.
  • The irony of the current situation is that Apple has by far the best smart home user experience.
  • This is because Apple has understood the importance of integrating these devices together into single commands and use cases like going to bed, leaving the house or arriving home.
  • This makes it easy to turn off all the lights, lock up, turn down the heating and so on with a single button press which is something that neither of the other two have come close to offering.
  • Furthermore, I suspect that HomeKit will end up being far more secure than the other two but at this point in time, no one seems to care.
  • Amazon has both first mover advantage and has done the best job of showing developers love and support.
  • The net result is that there now over 10,000 skills available for Alexa which continues to grow rapidly despite the awful user experience offered by most of these skills.
  • Consequently, I still think that this is Google’s race to lose as its product is by far the best, and its decimation by Amazon at CES seems to have shocked it into getting its developer activities up to scratch.
  • Of the three, I would continue to prefer Apple but overall I still like Baidu, Microsoft and Tencent.

Google vs. Amazon – Homefront.

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This could be a repeat of VHS vs. Betamax. 

  • Google is adding functionality to allow Google Assistant to compete more directly with Amazon’s Alexa, but what it really needs is to offer love and support to developers of smart home products.
  • Google’s failure to do this was visible on every stand at CES where a smart home product was to be found as they all will work with Amazon Alexa
  • Only a very tiny fraction will work with Google Assistant.
  • Google’s shopping functionality has involved singing a up a series of retailers such as Costco, PetSmart and Target to link their online ordering systems with Google Home such that a similar (to Amazon) shopping experience can be offered through the device.
  • Measuring up to Amazon in this category is going to be tough because Amazon has one system through which millions of products are available globally, whereas Google will have to sign up lots of retailers in every locality where it aims to have this service available.
  • However, when it comes to almost all of the other features, Google Assistant is capable of offering a vastly superior user performance than Amazon Alexa.
  • This is because the AI that powers Google Assistant is top of the class while Alexa’s is second rate at best.
  • Furthermore, the Google Home speaker is $50 cheaper than the Amazon Echo and in my opinion, a nicer looking product.
  • However, where Google falls over is home automation and here Amazon is currently ruling the roost.
  • RFM research has found that device developers receive plenty of love and support from Amazon which combined with the fact that there are now 8m devices in the hands of users drives them to make their products work with Alexa right from launch.
  • This is despite the fact that using many of these products with Amazon Alexa is a frustrating and fragmented experience.
  • A good example of this is Plex, which recently enabled an Alexa skill so that the user could control the Plex player using Alexa.
  • However, because Alexa lacks the brains to make service intuitive, the user experience is so bad that one tries to control Plex with Alexa once and quickly returns to the remote control.
  • In contrast to Amazon, many developers find that Google is difficult to work with and some did not even know who to at Google to call to enable Google Home with their product.
  • This is the opportunity for Google Home even though it only has around 0.5m devices in the market today.
  • I think Google needs to ramp up its love and support for developers immediately and thinking that they will just turn up at Google i/o is not nearly good enough.
  • There is a whole segment (home) of the digital ecosystem up for grabs right now and I still maintain that this is Google’s to lose.
  • However, at the moment it is Amazon that is blazing the trail and if Alexa makes it into the majority of households before Google pulls its finger out then the game will, in all probability, already be lost.
  • This will not be the first time that an inferior product will have won the day and I think there are valuable lessons that Google can learn from studying this history.
  • From an investment perspective, I continue to not really like either Alphabet or Amazon preferring Baidu, Tencent and Microsoft.