Microsoft – Free for all

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Making Windows 10 free is a net benefit.

  • The last remnant of doubt has been removed as Microsoft has confirmed that anyone who wants a free copy of Windows 10 will be able to get one.
  • The only requirement appears to be the installation of the Windows 10 beta version prior to the official launch date on 29th July 2015.
  • This is clearly aimed at older PCs that are running Windows XP and Vista as Windows 7 and Windows 8 already qualify for a free upgrade for up to one year after the release of the OS.
  • This is a significant move as the entire installed base of PCs is now eligible for a free upgrade to Windows 10.
  • This should have a meaningful effect on reducing the number of versions of Windows that are in the hands of users and concentrating all of them onto Windows 10.
  • Windows 10 is also the first version of Windows that will truly run common code across all devices where Microsoft software is present.
  • This will include PCs, tablets, Phones, Consoles and the large screen displays that Microsoft makes.
  • Furthermore, the financial hit to the Windows licensing business will be quite small as the majority of licence revenues come from new PCs that ship with Windows already installed.
  • This business will be unaffected as users are already very used to PC pricing where the cost of a copy of Windows is included as part of the price of the device.
  • Software consistency across an ecosystem is an important part of establishing a fun and easy to use experience that users can identify with.
  • Google really struggles with this as Android is very fragmented and the chaotic nature of the user experience is a major hindrance to the appeal of the ecosystem.
  • Furthermore, the situation is significantly exacerbated by its inability to control the distribution of its software meaning that it is having real difficulty in getting any improvements it makes into the hands of
  • Apple’s has excellent software consistency across iOS devices but Microsoft can go one better by having the same code on every device rather than using one for PCs and one for everything else.
  • That being said, Microsoft has a lot of work to do to make its ecosystem delightful to users in order to win their loyalty.
  • It must also change its marketing message so that users understand why they should use Microsoft rather than just telling them that it exists.
  • Making Windows 10 free for everyone is a good first step but Windows 10 must prove to be fun and easy to use on every device before it will really see some traction outside of PCs.
  • I am optimistic that Windows 10 will prove to be a success in PCs but Microsoft must show real cross device functionality and use cases before users are likely to realise the possibilities.
  • Microsoft remains my top pick in the ecosystem as its valuation continues to assume that its ecosystem fails to win any traction outside of the PC

 

 

 

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.