Microsoft – Silent knife

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Cuts look much bigger than they seem.

  • Microsoft’s planned 18,000 job cuts seems to spell the end of in-house manufacturing and has wide implications for Microsoft overall.
  • A total of 18,000 permanent positions are to go of which 12,500 are coming from the Nokia Devices and Services business.
  • At the same time Microsoft has imposed a policy change to external workers such that they will be now precluded accessing Microsoft’s buildings or its systems for 6 months after every 18 months worked.
  • For many external workers, this will have the effect of preventing them from being able to work for the company.
  • This is significant because Microsoft is thought to have more than 70,000 external or temporary staff on its books.
  • This restriction has been nominally put in place to preserve security but will also have the effect of meaningfully reducing the number of workers on the books.
  • The Nokia devices and services business will now be combined into a single business unit under Jo Harlow and Microsoft will look to migrate as much of Nokia X to Windows Phone as it can.
  • It also looks very much as if the Asha (low end feature phone) business will be meaningfully reduced in size and all in house manufacturing will be ceased.
  • Elsewhere, the organisation is being flattened and streamlined to make it more efficient but above all nimble, aggressive and responsive.
  • In the past it has been slow and lumbering and has missed a number of large market opportunities as a result.
  • It is clear that Nadella is forcing rapid change upon Microsoft but the real cultural shift has yet to happen.
  • The different business lines inside Microsoft have existed for many years in glorious isolation, often proud of the fact that they are independent from one another.
  • If Microsoft is to have a chance at being a successful ecosystem company, the ivory towers have to be destroyed and all the businesses need to start pulling together.
  • Lack of integration is the biggest and most difficult challenge that Microsoft faces when it comes to transforming its ecosystem into one that users will love.
  • There are signs of this coming from the top of Microsoft but this has to filter down through the ranks for it to really have the necessary impact.
  • I am increasingly optimistic that Nadella will be able to implement the necessary change but there remains an awful long way to go.
  • Efficiency will boost the bottom line but the real story will come to life when the top line begins moving once again.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.