PCs Q2 15A – The cruel sea

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PC makers do nothing to fight the tide.

  • Figures from both Gartner and IDC show that Q2 15A has been another awful quarter for the PC industry.
  • IDC has the market declining 11.8% to 66.1m units while Gartner has seen a 9.5% decline to 68.4m units.
  • Tough comparisons to 2014 where the ending of XP support drove a wave of PC upgrades and price increases driven by the strong dollar were to blame.
  • There was also inventory clearance ahead of the launch of Windows 10.
  • Lenovo continued to lead the market with around 20% share with HP is second place but the only vendor that is seeing any growth is Apple which has gained share to around 8% up from 6% Q2 14A.
  • The short term outlook depends on how well Windows 10 is received and there is every indication that it will go well.
  • This is because Microsoft has a monotonous rhythm of success and failure with its operating systems and following the disaster of Windows 8, it is time for a success.
  • I suspect that this rhythm has everything to do with the way Microsoft develops its code.
  • With a new OS, it is never finished on time and so as the deadline approaches, corners are cut and features are dropped.
  • The result is a mess which Microsoft then spends the next two years fixing and finally launches what it originally intended.
  • Consequently, the OS cycle is really 4 years rather than 2.
  • However, I suspect that Windows 10 will provide only temporary relief and what the industry desperately needs is some innovation.
  • The form factor of a PC and its use case have not changed for 30 years and all of the PC makers have such thin margins that they cannot really afford to do any R&D.
  • The one exception is Apple which produces beautiful looking devices, albeit at high prices, that sell well at the very high end.
  • I continue to believe that an answer to this problem is the obsolescence of the laptop form factor.
  • A device that is as powerful as a laptop but can be crammed into a tablet form factor which offers a far superior user experience.
  • This is because a desktop-like user experience that offers far better utility and ergonomics is now possible while the user is away from the office.
  • This should not be seen as a hybrid device but simply a better and healthier way to compute on the go.
  • With exception of Microsoft, the PC industry is addressing this with a series of 2-in-1 devices that are simply laptops where the screen can be removed.
  • 2-in-1s are hybrid devices that don’t perform either function particularly well, look clunky and dull and not surprisingly have been shunned by users.
  • This is why investment in R&D, imagination and creativity is needed which Apple has shown can have positive effects even in a declining market.
  • Combine this with slick marketing around a new use case, and I can see a replacement cycle kicking in that could drive the PC market back to growth.
  • In the absence of this, the PC market is likely to drift sideways with the occasional burst of excitement followed by a slough of despond.
  • Against this backdrop Microsoft has done a good job of mitigating revenue declines and is likely to outperform most of the other players.
  • Intel, with its position in servers should also be able to outperform the market, leaving the PC makers helplessly adrift upon the sea of a cruel market.
  • If the PC makers want to change their outlook they will have to do it themselves but there has been very little sign of any get up and go.
  • It seems to have got up and left.

 

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.