- The result of the recent management shake-up at Apple seems to have opened up a series of new avenues that had previously been considered closed.
- One of those avenues has long been the issue of the harmonisation of iOS and OSX.
- Currently these two are worlds apart with one running on ARM, being touch based and utilising small applications while the other is a fully fledged OS with no touch and running on Intel utilising keyboard and mouse.
- In his time, Steve Jobs was of the opinion that you could not mix these two as one would lose that which was great about both products creating something mediocre.
- However, Steve was also against a 7” iOS tablet but this seems to be selling like hotcakes following its recent launch.
- Everyone likes to poke fun at Microsoft but Windows 8 looks to have achieved that which Apple has not: a hybrid tablet / laptop that functions without compromise in either orientation.
- This leaves Apple very exposed because if this becomes popular and something consumers want then Apple has no product and no roadmap towards one.
- It will have to bridge the chasm between the two systems to do so.
- This, I suspect is where the issue that Apple might dump Intel and move to ARM is coming from.
- Moving to ARM would kill two birds with one stone.
- It would make life a lot easier as one could harmonise the two OSs meaning that applications would run on any Apple device anywhere and enable hybrid products to match Windows 8.
- It would also simplify the semiconductor roadmap as well as reduce the software development cost as there would only be one to work on.
- However, this is a big ask. It took Apple two years to migrate away from Power PC to Intel and at that time there was certainly no doubt that Intel was up to the job. You can’t say the same about ARM.
- ARM will get there but it is going to take a while and long before Intel faces this threat on Apple it will face the same threat from ARM in Windows 8.
- Given that Windows remains 90% of the personal computing space, this is a much greater worry for Intel.
- The advantages for a device maker of going to ARM are twofold:
- First, one gets a much more power efficient processor offering longer battery life.
- Second, as a device maker you get to break the WinTel stranglehold that has killed your margins for the last 15 years.
- The devices will be cheaper to make. If an Intel processor costs $150, $90 of that is profit for Intel.
- On ARM, it’s a much more competitive market meaning that chip gross margins are much lower.
- Typically, I would expect chip prices to halve by moving to ARM reducing the device bill of materials (BOM) by $75 in this case.
- When one is trying to make a device for $500 this represents a VAST saving and one worth considering.
- Hence, I think it very likely that Apple is thinking about this issue and whether it is worth harmonising the two OSs and putting everything on ARM.
- If Windows 8 is a success, and users love the dual functionality, then Apple is going to be found wanting with some years to wait before it has a decent offering.
- I think that Windows 8 will be a success and that those users that need to do some kind of content creation (75% of all PC users) will find value in Windows and not switch to Apple.
- Hence, I think Apple will eventually need to harmonise the two OSs with the result likely to be something that functions in a very similar manner to Windows 8.
- Will Apple do it? I don’t know.
- Perhaps Apple has become so big that it thinks that it can now pipe its tune and that all the children of Hamlyn will come scrambling after it.
- Right now it can play that tune successfully, but 6 years ago so could Nokia.
- Whatever the outcome, it is going to be a long time coming and in the interim, ARM is lacking in performance meaning that the real beneficiary of a Windows 8 driven 2013 upswing in PCs will be Intel.
Blog Comments
Juha-Pekka Sipponen
November 6, 2012 at 11:29 am
Good stuff. Making all this even harder, it will be quite hard to get conclusive evidence whether the dual functionality is the next dominant design. The chasm between those who’ll try anything shiny and the mass market who just want to get day-to-day computing done is big. In my opinion, the hybrid isn’t ergonomically as obvious of a concept for creation-oriented devices like replacing the physical button with the virtual buttons was for playback-oriented devices. Long lead times + unreliable consumer data – that highlights even more your point about the strategic and opinionated nature of this decision (or non-decision.)
windsorr
November 6, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Indeed. As a result I think Apple is toying with the idea and getting porepared just in case Windows 8 /hybrdi devices are a runaway success and it needs to do something quick.
tatilsever
November 6, 2012 at 12:21 pm
“Second, as a device maker you get to break the WinTel stranglehold that has killed your margins for the last 15 years.”
MS and Intel may have eaten most of the margins, but at least they were not actively trying to drive hardware people out of business. Google is breaking the back of its hardware partners by pricing its flagship Nexus 7 at $200, below the level Asus was targeting in markets where Google is not selling them. After licensing, transportation, marketing, customer support, warranty claims and retailing costs, there is not any money left for OEMs in Android tablets. This stage of rock bottom prices are not supposed to happen before a product category becomes a mature market. Google and Amazon has accelerated this process in a destructive game of chicken, where the most popular device means the biggest financial hit. Google has its advertising cash cow to finance this endeavor and Amazon shareholders are apparently fine with being part of a non-profit organization, but OEMs do not have such luxury. I suspect they are reminiscing about the good old days of Wintel monopoly, rather than celebrating its demise.
windsorr
November 6, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Google is indeed seems to be killing its partners both in tablets and in phones by hanging onto Motorola. Breaking Wintel offers them the opportunity to move beyond the reaches of Google and Intel although they will still be slaves to Microsoft…better one slave master than two I suppose
David Knepprath
November 6, 2012 at 9:38 pm
“Windows 8 looks to have achieved that which Apple has not: a hybrid tablet / laptop that functions without compromise in either orientation.”
What product are you referring to? I cringed when I read this line because every review I have read seems to imply their is indeed plenty of compromise. Most point hopefully to Surface Pro for a full Windows 8 experience, but this will come at even more tradeoff to the tablet side of the equation (weight, battery, cost).
windsorr
November 7, 2012 at 12:18 pm
The trade off that the device makes is entorely down to the limitations of Windows RT in its current form. There is scope as ARM comes up the performance curve for Windows RT to be exactly the same as Windows 8 on Intel. Then there is no compromise. As long as the Surface Pro and like devices are not heavy, ugly and overpriced bricks then the segment can fly
David
November 7, 2012 at 10:04 pm
The vision of a no compromise device is obvious. But there are still a lot of IF’s that have yet to be resolved on an executed product. My point is whether Windows 8 can achieve this is not in the history books yet.
windsorr
November 10, 2012 at 11:33 am
totally agree…I am hopeful but getting the consumers to swallow it is another kettle of fish
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