iPhone – Screen Test

Apple needs to skip the iPhone 5S and go straight to the 6. 

• To date, the iPhone has managed to hold its position by beating its competitors both in the hardware and in the software user experience.
• Back in 2007 the iPhone was market leading in terms of hardware but as competitors have caught up it has fallen further and further behind.
• Consequently it has found itself relying more and more on its software, ecosystem and user experience to make up the difference. 
• In that regard, iOS is still by far the dominant mobile ecosystem but for how long will this last?
• People scoff at Microsoft but when one looks at the offering in detail, one finds an ecosystem that is on par with iOS.
• The problem is that Microsoft and its partners don’t seem to be able to convince anyone to buy it.
• So far Apple has managed to contain the problem of its inferior hardware specification but devices like the Samsung Galaxy S4 and the HTC One make the iPhone 5 look tired and old.
• Something radical needs to happen to iPhone hardware and it needs to happen this year otherwise I fear that the superior experience of iOS will no longer be enough.
• The last few years have seen Apple produce a new piece of hardware, update it a year later and then release a full refresh every 24 months.
• Using that cycle as a guide, the market is expecting the iPhone 5S this year but I think that Apple may skip the 5S and go straight to the 6.
• After all, the iPhone 5 is not much more than an iPhone 4 with a slightly longer screen and a faster processor.
• The time is also right for other features to be added such as a fingerprint reader and NFC.
• The problem with screen size is the inevitable fragmentation that is causes to the ecosystem where developers need to ensure that their applications will run on all of the screen sizes that are available.
• Apple has done a great job in keeping the fragmentation to a minimum but I suspect that it is out of options and that another screen size is coming.
• In order not to get worried about market share in its high-end segment, I need to see an iPhone 6 with a much larger screen and some add on innovations like a fingerprint reader or NFC.
• If this does not happen, I think that the result will be stagnation of the ecosystem.
• I am not convinced that users will start to leave, as many of them are hopelessly addicted to iOS, but I think that the user base may well stagnate.
• My forecasts have 255m iPhone users by the end of 2013 going to 311m in 2014 but in the absence of a radical hardware upgrade, this number could easily stagnate.
• In the short term it would be Android with Samsung, Huawei, Lenovo, HTC etc. that would gain but I am not sure that Apple will sit idly by and let the growth of iOS evaporate.
• This would also be a great opportunity for Microsoft and its partners to pull their collective finger out and start selling the proposition more effectively.