MWC 2013 Day 1 – Writer’s block

MWC is bigger than ever but the frantic rushing around has given way to a more leisurely stroll.

• I very much doubt that I am alone in sitting here at the end of day 1 staring a blank screen and wondering what to fill the page with.
• There were a few announcements but pretty much all of them were about evolving what is already there rather than any big change.
• Therein lies the essence of where the mobile phone industry finds itself in 2013.
• It is just like it was back in 2005 and 2006 when Symbian was all the rage, as it had been for some time, and the platform was evolving and growth was slowing.
• The industry was ripe for a major change to take it a new direction and that is exactly where I see it today.
• Growth is slowing, the smartphone part of the market is maturing and there is nothing on the horizon that is going to disrupt or change the current status quo.
• I don’t know whether that disruption is wearable technology or application integration but most likely it is something that is so leftfield that no one will see it coming.
• Against this backdrop the rest of the show and the rest of the year seems set to pass off relatively peacefully with smartphones in emerging markets growing and developed markets stagnating.
• Stagnation is not necessarily bad.
• If one is profitable and generating good cash flow then growth offers nothing other than a higher PER ratio.
• Hence I think that emerging market smartphones is where all of the real action will be this year and many of the new comers to the ecosystem game are indeed focused there.
• They are however ignoring the fact that Android looks vulnerable in developed markets and is exposed to a substantial loss of share should something viable, easy and fun appear at a reasonable price point.
• Profitability will be the watchword to look for as Apple and Samsung together make more than 100% of the profits of the industry and this is where I hope the stragglers are focusing.
• Emerging markets are brutal in terms of competition and with it almost impossible to differentiate on Android, the outlook for profitability outside of Samsung is bleak.
• I would look to Nokia and Windows Phone as the place where real traction can be felt this year but they are making very heavy going of getting off the ground.