Nokia World – Good News. Bad News

I expect a good launch event, with one glaring exception.

• Nokia is holding its annual Nokia World event in Abu Dhabi this week.
• This is the event where Nokia gets together with the developers to keep them informed and enthusiastic about developing software for its products.
• Tomorrow is expected to see the launch of a range of devices, among them a Windows RT tablet.
• First the good stuff I am expecting to be launched:
• Nokia Lumia 1520.
  • I expect this to have a 6-inch 1080p screen, 2.2Ghz Snapdragon processor and a 20MP pure-view camera.
  • This is an answer to the phablet segment that Samsung has created and done very well from, partly due to Apple’s disinclination to participate.
  • For me, this will be a welcome addition to the line-up and if Nokia can get users excited about the prospect of Windows Phone, then it could do very well.
• Nokia Lumia 1320.  
  • This looks like it will be a successor of the Lumia 625 which has not done too well due to its relatively high price compared to its hardware specification.
  • This version will offer roughly the same specification but critically at a much lower price.
• Nokia Lumia 525
  • This looks to be an update of the 520 which has driven a very large proportion of Nokia’s shipments and revenues in smartphones over the last two quarters.
  • I suspect that the specification will not have changed too much although I expect that the software has been enhanced and extra services added.
  • Hence, I suspect that this will be very aggressively priced in order to help drive adoption of the platform.
• Nokia Asha 500, 502 and 503.
  • These updates to the Nokia Asha range will all be full-faced touch devices with different combinations of dual SIM and 3G.
  • This will give a spread of price points and address as many users as possible.
  • This is a tough place at the moment with the market flooded with super cheap, but poor quality Android products.
  • However, none of these companies seem to be making any money and at some point I would expect the market to become more rational.
  • With its understanding of product platforms and logistics, Nokia is well positioned to be a long term player in this market.
• Now the bad.
• Nokia Lumia 2520
  • This is a 10.1 inch tablet with a full HD 1080p display and a Qualcomm Snapdragon 800 chipset.
  • It will also feature 4G connectivity and standard resolution front and rear facing cameras.
  • The hardware looks fine but the device will be running Windows 8.1 RT
  • This single feature alone is likely to ensure that no-one buys this device. (see here)
  • Windows RT has already cost Microsoft billions of dollars in wasted development expenses and massive inventory write offs.
  • There is every sign that history will again repeat itself with its awful Windows Surface 2.
  • The market has spoken on Windows RT and it does not want it.
  • The message is so clear that all of the OEMs have stopped supporting the platform.
  • Why will a Nokia tablet be any different?
  • The answer is that it won’t and I can only hope that this device is merely lip service being paid to its new owner.
  • If the device is just for show, then commitments will be tiny and the losses racked up on its behalf, thankfully small.
  • I am pretty sure that this is the case as the management of the device business are pretty pragmatic and sensible in my experience.
  • Hence, while it looks bad on the surface, the reality is that the financial hit will be small and it will keep its new owner happy.
• Net net, I am expecting a good reception to these devices as they update and expand the offering in a sensible and market relevant manner.
• The stock is unlikely to move meaningfully in any direction now that the biggest unknown has been quantified.