USA vs. China – Semi chokehold.

SMIC becomes another political football.

  • The possibility that SMIC is added to the entity list has hammered its share price and it may become another casualty in the ongoing trade dispute between the USA and China.
  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is partially owned by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as some of the shares are publicly listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai, but the Chinese state retains full operational control.
  • SMIC is strategically important to China as it is a crucial building block of its Made in China 2025 strategy which is designed to allow China to become increasingly technologically independent from the rest of the world.
  • With the wider scrutiny of Chinese companies that deal with the US and their connections to the state, SMIC has been placed under investigation and may be added to the entity list as a result.
  • This would be a devastating blow because SMIC is dependent on US technology even more than Huawei is.
  • SMIC currently manufactures silicon chips for a series of clients and is active in many geometries down to 14nm.
  • This means that although it is not cutting edge, there is still plenty of demand for silicon chips that are made using slightly processes.
  • However, it is still dependent on technology from the US giving the US Commerce Department a chokehold on the company’s fortunes.
  • The world of silicon chip manufacturing is a series of mini-monopolies where the supply of equipment for each stage of manufacturing is often controlled by one company.
  • These companies are predominantly from Japan, The USA and The Netherlands but because it’s a linear process, no one can make a silicon chip without using a piece of equipment or software from a USA company.
  • This applies to all geometries, meaning that in order to function, SMIC needs access to US technology.
  • The US is investigating SMIC’s links to the Chinese military and while the company has said its products are solely for civilian and commercial uses, just a brief look through its history raises plenty of questions.
    • First, shareholders: One of SMIC’s shareholders, customers and board members is Datang Telecom.
    • This is also a Chinese state-owned enterprise that supplies telecom equipment to both civilian companies and the People’s Liberation Army.
    • In my opinion, the fact that Datang Telecom is a shareholder with a seat on the board provides a fairly strong link to the military which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements.
    • Second, track record: Like Huawei, there have been incidents where SMIC has been accused of misappropriating intellectual property.
    • In 2005 SMIC settled a lawsuit filed in 2003 by TSMC in the US with a $175m payment.
    • A second round of legal action was launched in 2006 where SMIC was found by a jury in Oakland to be liable on 61 out of 65 claims made by TSMC.
    • All outstanding claims were settled in 2009 and TSMC’s security has been much tighter ever since.
  • Hence, I think that it is quite possible that SMIC is added to the entity list meaning that all of its suppliers will be forced to obtain licences in order to sell equipment and services.
  • This could be extremely damaging as the US Commerce Department has stated that the default position is to deny applications, putting SMIC in a very tight spot.
  • I think that like Huawei, the US is not actively seeking to put it out of business but that its real intent is to put pressure on the Chinese government when it comes to negotiating the overall terms of their long-term relationship.
  • Hence, I would expect that if a 2nd stage deal is struck between the two, that some relief for both Huawei and SMIC would be part of that.
  • However, this is looking increasingly unlikely, as the relationship is rapidly deteriorating with little movement on either side.
  • I certainly would not expect this to change before the US election in November.
  • SMIC could very well fall much further which will make Huawei feel fortunate that it has not gone to IPO.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.

Blog Comments

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[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

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[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

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[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

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[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note.Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report claiming […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrotein a research note.Elsewhere,the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report claiming […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]

[…] strong link to the military, which seems to contradict SMIC’s own statements,” he wrote in a research note. Elsewhere, the Financial Times said an unnamed US defence contractor has compiled a report […]