Computex Day 2 & Microsoft Build – Tale of 2 Conferences

Computex Day 2 – Wider and deeper. While Nvidia dominated day 1 with data centre, it was left to the rest of the industry to make the announcements that everyone has come to Computex to see, namely computing and gaming. Here, Windows on Arm continues to dominate the agenda with x86 largely missing in action, although to be fair, neither...

Computex Day 1 – Nvidia Opens.

Nvidia is not standing still. Nvidia Founder Jensen Huang opened Computex 2025 with a confident session that launched new products aimed at the enterprise, but also admitted that in the AI factories, not everything is going to come from Nvidia opening the door for other silicon offerings. I see this as a wise move as the AI data centre market...

Alibaba FQ4 25 – AI no-show.

Economic gloom shatters AI dreams. Alibaba reported a mediocre set of results, underlining that the task at hand for the Chinese state is to breathe life back into the consumer economy in which it had a large part in destroying. The health of the Chinese economy is a crucial factor when considering the struggle with the USA, as it is...

China vs. USA – The Isolation Game

The current game mode is isolation. On top of incentivising the Middle East to pivot West, the US Department of Commerce has warned that the use of Huawei chips is a violation of US export controls. This is a thinly veiled strategy aimed at further isolating China from the rest of the global technology ecosystem. If the majority of the...

Artificial Intelligence – The Middle East

Plenty of space, electricity and money The visit of the US President to the Middle East has intensified the friendly competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of whom intend to become global AI hubs. The President’s visit coincides with a Saudi-US Investment Forum where a slew of deals have been announced that look set to give the region...

Arm FQ4 25 – Mean Reversion

Worries have already evaporated Arm reported good results but guided weakly as a result of trade issues which already look like they will not come to pass which is why the shares have already put back all of what they lost last week. Q4 revenues / Adj-EPS were $1.24bn / $0.55, just ahead of estimates of $1.23bn / $0.53. This...

Google – Code Yellow

The warning lights are flashing yellow Apple claims that it has seen the first sign of generative AI impacting Google’s search traffic, meaning that Q2 25 will be a crucial quarter to see whether the anecdote translates into data. Even if there has been an impact, Google already has a competitive product, meaning that if it can execute on Gemini,...

China vs. USA– The Long Game Pt. II

The US Administration is very clever or very lucky. The reassessment of the new rule on chip exports from the USA by luck (or by design) will still have the impact of limiting China’s competitiveness despite its ability to develop leading-edge AI. At the same time, it will mollify prominent allies such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia who have...

China vs. USA– The Long Game

For once, Jensen is not long-term enough. Jensen has bemoaned the potential loss of the Chinese market which he thinks will be worth $50bn. Even though he is famed for thinking way ahead of everyone else, this time he is too short-term focused, as what US and Western companies lose in China, I think they will get back elsewhere in...

AMD Q1 25– Party Pooper

USA / China spoils the party. AMD’s excellent results show that it is taking share from Intel in PCs as well as gaining share in the data centre as inference becomes a much larger part of demand, but unlike Intel, Nvidia has a fix for this. AMD Q1 25 revenues / EPS were $7.4bn / $0.96 comfortably ahead of estimates...