CES 2026 – Day 2 – Its Raining Robots

Floor report – Still pretty calm

• Foot traffic has not picked up on day 2, underlining that yesterday was not a blip and that indeed, 2026 has noticeably fewer visitors than in 2025.
• Geopolitics is the most often cited reason for this, but a quick tour of the floor demonstrated that this is not a valid argument.  
• The North Hall is wall-to-wall Chinese robot companies and component suppliers, while China’s presence in many of the other halls and in terms of delegates wandering around is up substantially compared to 2025.
• This means that it is a combination of budget constraints and a lack of interest from the technology tourists that is mostly responsible for the lighter attendance.
• Anyone who is involved in the data centre roll-out is busier than ever, but on the consumer front, there is a lack of new and exciting stories, which is contributing to the generally more relaxed atmosphere.
• I suspect that I will have time to thoroughly inspect the pinball stand.

Robotics – Behind every bot is a human

• The main theme of CES 2026 is, without doubt, robotics, even though the commercial reality of the much-promised robotic housekeeper or companion remains many years away.
• The number of companies demonstrating humanoid robots is up at least 10x compared to 2025, and RFM has counted more than 20 makers of humanoid robots in the North Hall alone.
• It is extremely telling that the biggest queues of the show by far are for the Hyundai stand where people are waiting for 30 minutes or more.
• This is not to see a car but to see the Boston Dynamics robot, which is being shown in public for the first time.  
• All of these robots are jumping around, dancing, doing kung-fu moves and front rolls, but behind every bot is a human.
• In the corner of each demo area is a company representative quietly mashing the buttons of a game controller to which the robot mostly responds.
• Even with this help, the robotic manoeuvres are far from fluid, underlining that a general-purpose house robot remains many years, if not decades, away.
• Investment in overcoming the shortcomings has increased in the last 12 months, and several prominent minds have pivoted to solving the problem, but there remains a very long way to go.
• Nowhere is this clearer than with the robot arms or the humanoids that are making cups of coffee using an espresso machine designed for human use.
• In all instances that I have seen, the humans are better, faster and cheaper at doing tasks such as making coffee or even just handing out gifts.
• It is not until this state of affairs is reversed will robots have a chance of taking off in any real sense, and the market for robots today (predominantly for factories) remains challenged due to industrial malaise.
• Hence at CES 2026, the humanoid robots are a bit of fun, and it is really only the single-purpose robots, such as the lawn mowers and pool cleaners, that have been around for years, that will see any commercial traction.
• This sector has very substantial revenue potential, but this goes hand in hand with a very substantial wait for it to become a reality.

Samsung Q4 2025 – Mojo Returns

• An excellent Q4 25 with the promise of more to come completes the turnaround in Samsung’s shares with the question now becoming how much longer should one hold on before selling.
• Preliminary Q4 2025 revenues / EBIT are expected to be KRW93tn / KRW20.0tn nicely ahead of estimates of KRW90.5tn / KRW17tn.
• The good results, combined with the general realisation that Samsung is going to be a player in the next generation of high bandwidth memory (HBM4), are what drove the recovery and now, the breakout in the share price.
• Samsung has done exactly what I thought it would do in dropping HBM3 and putting all of its efforts into HBM4, and by all accounts, it has worked.
• Hence, I am virtually certain that Samsung will be announced as having qualified for Nvidia and will return to being a major supplier in H2 2026.
• With the world capacity constrained for HBM until at least the end of 2026 and probably 2027, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are going to sell everything they can make at excellent prices for a while yet.
• It is not until there is balance in the market that a fight for market share will begin, and this could be more than 18 months away.
• Consequently, I suspect that forecasts will increase again when Samsung reports its results in detail later this month, meaning that the run may not be over.
• The easy money in Samsung has been made, which is when the shares went from hated to tolerated, but at 17x 2026 PER, the valuation remains fairly unchallenging compared to the peer group.
• I am beginning to think of exiting my position in Samsung Electronics as the driver moves from fundamental recovery to narrative and momentum but usually it is only when narrative and momentum have been in the driving seat for a while that the top is reached.