Apple – Returning Vision

A good effort but too early.

• Some users are starting to return the Apple Vision Pro in a sign that while Apple has clearly demonstrated how The Metaverse should be implemented, it has failed to solve the basic VR problems that everyone else continues to labour with.
• A small, but not insignificant proportion of Apple Vision Pro users are choosing to return their Apple Vision Pro within the 14-day window that Apple is offering for returns.
• I suspect that the main reason for this is that $3,500 is a high price to spend on a device that once tried, will only be used occasionally and so some users appear to be choosing to get their money back.
• Crucially, the main complaints being cited are headaches, discomfort (especially as the weight is front-loaded), eye strain and motion sickness all of which we have heard many times with other devices.
• Furthermore, the productivity function does not appear to work as well as many users hoped and so the device does not have this use case to help sell it and drive usage.
• Furthermore, many of the major entertainment platforms like YouTube, Netflix and Spotify have decided not to support this version meaning that content consumption in the device is more limited than elsewhere in the iOS ecosystem.
• Crucially many of those returning the device remain keen to try the next version implying that the problems being faced are not being blamed on a poor implementation by Apple but on the fact that the technology is still not ready.
• This reinforces my long-held view that Apple has gone too early with its offering for the Metaverse but importantly, it does not look like the returns will do its brand much harm.
• What Apple got right:
  • First, Augmented Reality (AR): which RFM has long concluded is where the vast majority of digital life in the Metaverse will eventually be spent.
  • The problem is that the technology to do AR properly is even more limited than virtual reality which is why Apple decided to simulate AR with what is actually a VR device.
  • It is the fact that this is a VR device that is responsible for the problems that are causing users to return the device.
  • Second, Reality perception: where Apple has implemented a completely separate and real-time system to perceive and interpret the real world so it can be superimposed on the virtual.
  • For me, this is the biggest breakthrough of this product and I expect that in time, the industry will follow Apple down this road.
  • This system will put Apple in a good position to create a proper AR device when the technology can support that use case.
  • This will be doubly the case if Apple has patented the system which will make life much harder for anyone trying to follow.
  • Third, user interface: The device ships with no controllers but instead relies solely on hand gestures.
  • Apple has put a lot of effort into getting this to work properly and the general consensus is that it does again, I suspect that many others may follow Apple down this path.
• What Apple got wrong:
  • First timing: this device makes hideous compromises in terms of field of view, off-device battery, weight balance and the fact that it is a VR device.
  • This is why I think that Apple is a couple of years early with this device and it could have easily waited another year or two before launching it.
  • However, putting a stake in the ground now announces Apple’s intention to address this segment and will keep developer minds open preventing them from only concentrating on the Quest platform.
  • Second productivity: The ability to have a large floating screen projected from a map alongside other screens from the Vision Pro itself sounds good but it hasn’t panned out very well in practice.
  • This is probably the area that reviewers have expressed the most disappointment as it doesn’t work well enough to compel users to don the device as opposed to spending the money on a large external monitor.
• The net result is that even though Apple is not taking the right long-term path with the Vision Pro, it provides a placeholder for The Metaverse and an insurance policy just in case The Metaverse is the next big computing platform.
• With reality perception being a single and unique system, Apple will be able to reuse this in a real AR device where the perception of the real world and the man-machine interface will be just as important.
• Its device is extremely expensive, but it does everything so much better than anything else that has gone before that it will give developers the confidence that this is a platform worth paying attention to over the next 10 years.
• This will have no financial impact on Apple for many years as both its revenues and its costs will be a rounding error in the accounts, but it provides the security of a position just in case.
• Hence, holding Apple shares remains about iPhone which continues to fare very well in difficult circumstances but not well enough to make me want to own the stock.
• Hence, I continue to look elsewhere.