Faraday Future – Skin deep.

Uncertainty is still the name of the game.

  • Faraday Future has managed to recreate a veneer of credibility, but its plans look as unbelievable as ever making wonder whether this recovery is just skin deep.
  • For such a young company, Faraday Future (founded in 2014) already has a long and chequered history meaning that anything it does from here will be met with scathing scepticism.
  • From almost certain bankruptcy at the end of 2018, the settlement of its dispute with Evergrande (see here) combined with a $225m cash injection from Birch Lake Associates has allowed the company to limp through 2019.
  • In September FF announced the recruitment of Carsten Breitfeld formally of Byton and BMW as its new CEO.
  • This has been followed with other senior appointments from the automotive industry that go a long way towards giving the impression that the company has turned a corner.
  • The company will now focus on 2 models:
    • FF91: the long-promised, often delayed but now relaunched as an ultra-luxury, high-end vehicle that will attempt to rival the Mercedes-Maybach s650.
    • This vehicle has screens everywhere, boasts 1,050hp, 0-60 in 2.39 seconds, fully reclining rear seats, space for a champagne fridge and multiple 4G LTE modems.
    • The FF91 will cost a staggering $175,000 meaning that it will be competing against the most luxurious brands in the industry.
    • This is where questions arise as FF states that it is targeting high quality, high efficiency and cost-effective production of the ultra-luxury “new species” FF 91.
    • The one thing that one does not do when asking customers to pay $175,000 for an unknown brand is cut corners and I suspect this approach may result in a perception of low value for money when the FF91 makes into the hands of reviewers.
    • Other questions include why the vehicle has multiple modems and why there is no 5G.
    • The technology industry seems to be of the opinion that 5G is essential for connected vehicles and so why this has not been included is a mystery.
    • Also, I see no reason at all for multiple modems as this approach is not going to provide a solution to weak network coverage.
    • FF81: a more budget-friendly EV that will be priced around $40,000 and is likely to see much more demand and is scheduled to go on sale in 2021.
  • With new management and a new plan in place, the company is raising money to take it through to an IPO in 2021.
  • This means that Breitfeld effectively has 12 months to get this company into the kind of shape that will make suitable for an IPO.
  • Following the meltdown of WeWork’s IPO and the long lead time required for vehicles, I think that there is no way that this company will be close to being IPO ready by the end of the next year.
  • The net result will be further fund-raisings and more acrimony over missed targets (IPO).
  • I am prepared to consider the possibility that Faraday Future is once again a going concern but some of the plans being discussed have an air of incredibility about them.
  • I may be wrong but at the moment the recovery at Faraday Future looks skin deep.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.