Google Hardware – Pixelated strategy

Nice innovations but virtually no buyers.

  • Google held a fairly subdued affair where it launched a new smartphone, earbuds, Chromebook and a smart home offering.
  • The AI runs everything mantra has certainly been toned down this year as I expect it didn’t help volumes last year which remained pitiful.
  • Instead, Google focused on the functionality of the new devices that are launching with photography at the forefront just like everyone else.

Pixel 4

  • Google has followed Apple down the form-factor-that-only-a-mother-could-love route with a hideous large square camera bump.
  • This bump is completely unnecessary as there are only two cameras in the Pixel 4 with Google relying on its best-in-class AI to make up for what the others do in hardware.
  • A new “radar” sensor senses proximity and can speed up various functions by predicting what is coming next, but as usual most of the attention was on the camera.
  • To that end, Google has enhanced HDR, digital zoom, auto white balance and night mode which were very impressive in the demos but it remains to be seen how well they stack up against Apple and Samsung in real-life tests.
  • Google is also focusing on distribution and has announced more operators distributing the device this year in an effort to increase its shipment numbers above a rounding error
  • At $799 and $899, it is competitively priced relative to the iPhone and so I think it has a chance of doing a lot better than its predecessors.

Earbuds

  • Google is having another shot at this and the earbuds look the part and are reasonably well priced at $179.
  • The software helps manage the balance between volume relative to the user’s surroundings as well as rapid access to the assistant.
  • Google assistant remains the best available but whether it is enough to sell this device in large volumes remains to be seen.

Smart Home

  • A new Google Home Mini (now called Nest Mini) with a wall hanging attachment was launched with better microphone reception that gives greater flexibility on how to deploy the device.
  • However, I doubt that many people will want the unsightly wire hanging down the wall and so I am not optimistic that this adds much appeal to the device.
  • More interesting is the new Mesh Wifi offering where the access points that pick up and retransmit the Wifi signal also double as smart speakers with the assistant built-in.
  • This is probably one of the most appealing features, as there are a number of excellent mesh WiFi options already available.

Chromebook Go

  • Chromebook Go is a nice-looking device but at $649 it is neither fish nor fowl.
  • Those who want to just consume content would be better off with an Android tablet and those who want content creation would be better off with a mid-range laptop.
  • Furthermore, devices aimed at education, which most Chromebooks are, need to be in the $200 range.
  • Hence, I think volume will continue to be tiny.

Take-Home Message

  • I still don’t really understand why Google is making hardware as this is not its core business, annoys its partners and costs a lot of money in my opinion.
  • These devices do not meaningfully advance the Google hardware proposition although the improved distribution of Pixel 4 and its quite competitive price may help volumes somewhat.
  • I continue to think it would be better served by throwing its lot in with Samsung by giving it a temporary exclusive on its new features and software as this would ensure that the best of what it has to offer reaches far more of its own users.
  • As it stands today, Google has some very nice innovations with its AI and software but very few people will ever get to experience them, let alone pay for them.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.