Google – The shine of Chrome

Usage of Chrome is likely to continue growing.

• The latest data from Net Market Share (see here) shows that Chrome is steadily gaining share when it comes to web browsing.
• Chrome now makes up 22% of all mobile web browser usage behind Safari at 45%.
• This is more than double the usage Chrome enjoyed just one year ago when its share was less than 10%.
• This gain has come mostly at the expense of Safari where usage share was around 56% 12 months ago.
• The Android browser that comes as part of the open source Android is now just behind Chrome at 21% usage which has declined slightly in the last 12 months.
• RFM research indicates that the dip in Safari’s share is due to the fact that the number of Android devices in the hands of users is increasing much more quickly than iOS.
• Consequently I believe that a measure of usage per user would show that there has been no dip in Safari usage by users and potentially even increases.
• Chrome has also seen share increase in the desktop space which I put down to the reasonably brisk shipments of Chromebooks which Microsoft is now trying to address.
• Despite the increase in the desktop, it is clear that the majority of the usage increase of Chrome is coming from mobile devices.
• I think that that there are two reasons for this.
  • First. Shipments of Android devices have continued to gain share over the last 12 months due to the lower and lower price points at which this platform is available.
  • Android is currently shipping on 82% of all smartphones that are sold (Counterpoint Research) meaning that its share of the embedded user base is expanding very quickly.
  • At the same time, fragmentation has improved with more devices on the latest versions of Android meaning that usability has also improved. This will push usage up.
  • Second: I believe that Chrome is now one of the apps. that Google requires to be installed on the device as part of the Mobile Application Distribution Agreement.
  • This is the agreement that handset makers must sign with Google if they want to have any of the Google services that their users demand on their devices.
  • Once a handset maker has signed this agreement and its handset has passed testing, the Google applications (GMS) can be installed on the device.
  • Hence I suspect that Chrome is now on an increasing share of GMS compliant devices and is very likely to be set as the default browser.
  • In mobile devices, being default is very important when it comes to usage and I suspect that this is the biggest reason why Chrome has been steadily gaining share.
• RFM research indicates that the number of GMS devices (which make up the Google ecosystem) will continue to grow steadily over the next few years.
• This means that usage share of Chrome is likely to continue growing steadily.
• This will come at expense of Safari due to device numbers, the Android browser as more devices become GMS complaint and possibly Firefox which has seen usage decline as people use Chrome instead.
• This is good news for Google as it will be collecting more data meaning that it can target its advertising inventory more accurately as well as having more advertisements to sell.
• RFM continues to see Google and Microsoft as the best places to seek investment opportunity in the digital ecosystem.