Semis looks better than Internet at the moment. Facebook Q2 2021 – Better lucky than good. Facebook reported excellent results but the adpocalypse is going to hurt in Q3 leaving Facebook as a game of two halves. The first half is a punchy valuation against slowing growth but the second is the opportunity that lies ahead of Facebook in virtual...
Great numbers are already reflected in valuations. Alphabet Q2 2021 – No adpocalypse Alphabet reported excellent Q2 2021 results, and it looks as if Apple’s adpocalyspe is not going to have a significant effect in Q3 2021 leaving a valuation that is fair but not exciting. Q2 2021 revenue ex-TAC / EPS were $51bn / $27.26 compared to consensus at...
Fundamentals and valuation remain divorced. Tesla reported excellent results that begin to establish its long-term credentials as a player in this market but the notion that it is worth more than most of the rest of the industry put together remains as absurd today as it was 12 months ago. Q2 2021 revenues / EPS were $11.96bn / $1.02...
China does the USA another favour. China’s potential crackdown on its education industry is likely to have the opposite impact of that which is desired holding back the next generation of innovative entrepreneurs. This will hinder its ability to keep up with the USA in the long technology war that I see being fought in the coming years. A leaked...
Jio and Google fragment the Android platform. Jio Platforms is redoubling its efforts to capture the Indian market for new digital services while ceding the traditional ecosystem to Google and Facebook. The real loser here is Kai OS which was the software and ecosystem that was on the original Jio Phone but it has now been replaced with an optimised...
Texas Instruments raises questions on the supercycle. Texas Instruments bucked the semiconductor super cycle narrative in its Q2 2021 results with a forecast that has led some to question whether the semiconductor cycle is already peaking. Q2 2021 revenue / EPS were $4.58bn / $1.99 compared to estimates of $4.36bn / $1.83 but it was in the guidance where concerns...
Peloton finally gets one right. Peloton’s move into virtual cycling games should provide some exclusivity for its bikes which if taken to its logical conclusion may help cushion the company from further gross margin erosion. Peloton has released a new game called Lanebreak for its bikes which is similar to the common rhythm games for mobile phones except that with...
Part I can be found here Part II – Aurora demands the shirt off the investor’s back. The valuation of this deal is even more divorced from reality than Tesla and the EV SPAC crowd that it has spawned as I value this business at $1.1bn which is 90% below the $11bn being asked. Typically, these SPACs have revenues beginning...
A look at the Aurora SPAC in two parts The autonomous trucking company is going public at $11bn with mediocre technology and a financial plan that will not see the company generate any profit before 2027. This profile reveals a proposition that is on the extreme end of risk meaning that the valuation should be orders of magnitude lower in...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
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Amazon Q2 2021 – Whoops $127bn. Amazon reported good results but shed $127bn (7%) in value as Q3 2021 forecasts failed to live up to voracious expectations, underlying once again the poor risk-reward balance in much of big tech. Q2 2021 revenues / EPS were $113.1bn / $15.12 broadly in line with expectations of $115bn / $12.28 but it was...