Lucid Motors – SPAC crazy

FOMO feeds the cash bonfire. Lucid Motors is going public using a SPAC vehicle at a valuation that once again underlines that fear of missing out (FOMO) is driving investment in this sector as opposed to any semblance of reality. Lucid Motors is a luxury EV maker and as such is not really a competitor for Tesla but more BMW,...

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Wireless Charging – Jump start?

The Chinese may provide a long-needed boost for this technology. Oppo is the latest of three Chinese handset vendors that have jumped into the far-field wireless charging game in a sign that differentiation is increasingly hard to come by but also just might finally allow this sector to reach the mainstream. Far-field wireless charging has been a theme I have...

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Facebook – The wizard of OZ

Facebook outplays the Australians in leveraging its network effect. Facebook has scored a big win in arriving at an agreement with the Australian government regarding paying for news from Australian sources with concessions that virtually guarantee that it will be business as usual from here on. Facebook has said that it is satisfied with the changes and guarantees that it...

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Ant Group – Master and commander pt. II

Life gets more real for online finance in China. Changes to the banking rules mean that the nimble online lending sector will become much more capital intensive which will incentivise the lending platforms to be more risk-averse when it comes to making loans. Online lending platforms are now being forced to have much more skin in the lending game by...

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Semiconductor shortage – Super size me.

This cycle is going to be bigger than normal. The balance between supply and demand in semiconductors has always been tricky to get right, but the pandemic has made the situation a whole lot worse which is what I suspect is at the heart of the current problems. The main reason why semiconductors are cyclical is because the factories that...

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Palantir Q4 2020 – Rollercoaster

Another good company bad stock scenario. In the grand scheme of things, Palantir reported excellent results but because the company trades at 2021 EV/Sales of 32.5x, nothing less than a guarantee of a continuation of blistering growth is enough, meaning that the stock fell 13%. Q4 2020 revenues / EPS were $322.1m / LOSS$0.08 ahead of expectations of $301m /...

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Autonomous Autos 2020 – The grind

Still a very long way to go. The lead changes once again as Baidu does not feature in this year’s data, but it is now very tight at the top and many players have seen little improvement in the last 12 months leaving us still very far from real commercial deployment. The latest disengagement report from the California Department of...

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Arm & NVIDIA– The unthinkable pt. IV

IPO may end up being the best way forward. The latest revelations with regard to NVIDIA’s acquisition of Arm from SoftBank again increases the probability that the acquisition fails, resulting in an IPO outcome which is increasingly looking like the best outcome for everyone except SoftBank. The US has now followed the UK and the EU in increasing its scrutiny...

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Uber & Lyft – No good news.

The ride-sharing market remains in difficulty Uber Q4 2020 – Sheep in FedEx clothes? Uber is fortunate that it has had a delivery business to help it weather the pandemic, but this raises the possibility that it should be compared to FedEx and UPS when it comes to valuation rather than the inflated technology sector. Uber reported in line Q4...

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8K – The steepening slope

8K pricing seems to be falling off a cliff. If CES and Samsung are anything to go by, the 8K product cycle looks set to be a financial disaster as the lack of a use case seems to be causing the price of the TVs to fall far faster than previous generations. TVs are like any other piece of consumer...

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