In this business, it pays to be big. Alphabet Q4 18 – Outside the doghouse. Alphabet reported good Q4 18 results, but rising costs and an increasing fear of privacy regulation has kept a lid on optimism both inside and outside of the company. Q4 18 revenues / adj-EPS were $31.84bn / $12.77 ahead of consensus at $31.33bn / $10.86....
A new breed of digital ecosystem may rise. Fortnite is showing early signs of expanding from gaming and offering other Digital Life services leading to the possibility that it could become a digital ecosystem in its own right. Fortnite is a hugely popular massively multiplayer online (MMO) game where players typically fight each other to the death with the last...
The privacy religion may prevent the AI fix. In stamping his authority on Apple’s AI efforts, John Giannandrea has an opportunity to fix the problems that are plaguing Siri but runs the risk of running up against Apple’s deepening religion on privacy. The head of Apple Siri has (been?) moved into another role completing the rout of the old guard,...
Facebook users & clients don’t seem to care about its’ issues. Facebook reported good Q4 18 results confirming that its users and its clients do not seem to care about the privacy issues that have tied up the media and regulators up in knots during 2018. Hence Facebook’s real problem remains AI which is responsible for its falling profitability where...
Apple is looking like a safe haven once again. Hardware is by far the most efficient method of digital ecosystem monetisation but at the same time, it is also the riskiest, meaning that when it goes wrong, it really hurts. Furthermore, Apple’s hardware is so profitable that it will find it virtually impossible to replace hardware profits with services, leading...
Android Automotive is far from a foregone conclusion. Google clearly still thinks of vehicles as nothing more than handsets on wheels which I think is the reason why products that were supposed to use it do not and why the software was conspicuously absent at what is now the world’s biggest car show, CES. Google has put a brave face on...
Integration benefit overshadowed by AI. After a long 4½ year wait, Facebook is finally integrating its Digital Life services that will enable it to meaningfully improve the service that offers as well as well as the targeting that it applies to its advertisements. It will also make the company more opaque and difficult to break-apart from a regulatory standpoint. Facebook’s...
Google increasingly at risk of losing. Walmart has abandoned Google Express dealing what is likely to be a fatal blow to Google’s attempt to challenge Amazon in the one place where its’ performance is inferior in the smart home. There has been no formal announcement, but Google Express has admitted on Twitter that Walmart is no longer on its website....
Didi in pole position but should not rush to IPO. The Mobike brand is about to disappear in yet another sign that while the sharing economy offers great deals to its users, earning a return from it is fiendishly difficult. This is a major global trend that I expect to play out with increasing volume during 2019 and uniquely leaves...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
Spotify Q4 18 – Into the night
The labels won’t go quietly into the night. Spotify reported its first-ever profit and underscored its move into podcasts but the fall in the share price just serves to underpin the view that Spotify still has no real business in being a public company. Q4 18 revenues / EBIT were €1.70bn / €94m compared to consensus revenues at €1.71bn. Crucial...