Fitbit – Boredom bites.

Reply to this post           User indifference likely to drive further estimate cuts in 2017. Fitbit issued a horrible profit warning as users appear to be becoming bored with fitness tracking despite Fitbit’s efforts to drive engagement through the ecosystem. Q4 16A revenues / Adj.EPS will be $572m – $580m / LOSS$0.51 – LOSS$0.56 compared to...

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Google Enterprise – No G man.

Reply to this post           G Suite and Chromebook upgrades are too little too late. Functionality upgrades to the mobile version of G Suite (Office-like apps) and enhancements the Chromebook proposition are not likely to alter the downward trajectory that I see for Google in the enterprise. Google has announced upgrades to the iOS and Android...

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GOOG, MSFT & INTC – Cloud party.

Reply to this post           Cloud and mobile drive 3 for 3.  Alphabet Q4 16. Alphabet reported excellent results driven once again by mobile advertising but was somewhat marred by a one-off tax payment. Q4 16A revenue-ex TAC / Adj-EPS was $21.2bn / $9.36 compared to consensus at $20.6bn / $9.63. If the one off tax...

Qualcomm – Tooth and nail.

Reply to this post           This time around, Qualcomm should fight. I think Qualcomm will best serve its shareholders by fighting tooth and nail to halt the fall of royalty rates that has been going on for the last 9 years. The fight between Apple and Qualcomm is a sure indicator that life in the smartphone...

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LINE Q4 16 – Game off.

Reply to this post           Gaming could save LINE but the focus appears to be elsewhere.  LINE reported a difficult set of results which laid bare how difficult it will be to return to growth without expanding either its coverage of Digital Life or its user base. With the shares trading on 5.7x 2016A EV /...

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Alibaba FQ3 17 – Crossed swords.

Reply to this post           Where Alibaba crosses swords with its peers, life is much tougher.  Alibaba reported excellent FQ3 17 results as growth in the other areas of its business augmented the Chinese retail juggernaut. FQ3 16 revenues / Adj-EPS was RMB53.2bn (US$7.7bn) / RMB9.02 compared to consensus estimates of RMB50.1bn / RMB7.70. Alibaba also...

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Snap Inc. – Valuation snaps.

Reply to this post           Snapchat looks more like Twitter than Facebook.  Snapchat appears to be intending to focus on engagement metrics to justify its $20bn-$25bn valuation in the coming IPO. I see this as a sure sign that real metrics such as revenue and profit will fall far short of that which a regular company...

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Alphabet – Magic half

Reply to this post           Half a million is good but not enough.  Latest data from Wave 7 is implying that Google devices have done better than my retail survey implied, but I don’t think that it has come close to capitalising on the open goal that Samsung and Amazon left for it in Q4 16....

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Twitter – Event horizon

Reply to this post           Sale of Fabric collapses Twitter’s horizons.  With the sale of Fabric to Google, Twitter has essentially given up all hope of becoming an ecosystem and its growth will be totally dependent on its ability to create engagement around media consumption. This means that a blue-sky scenario for Twitter will see it...

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LeEco – Le life line

Reply to this post           Small war chest means laser sharp strategy and execution needed.  Chinese real estate developer Sunac has pumped $2.2bn into LeEco to get the fledgling Chinese ecsosystem back on track, but I still think it will need to dump autos to have a chance. Sunac is buying a 8.6% stake in Leishi...

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