The narrow focus of some ecosystem plays is starting to hurt. First there was Twitter, now there is Linked-in. Linked-in reported disappointing results as growth slowed more than expected causing investors to worry about the longer-term growth. Linked-in, like Twitter, has a valuation (12.4x 2014E EV/Sales), that is already pricing in high growth in the...
When so much is pinned on the future, the tiniest wobble is catastrophic. Twitter reported great maiden results but the slowing user growth caused the stock to lose nearly a fifth of its value. Q4 revenues and EPS were $243m / $0.02 compared to consensus at $217m and a loss of $0.02. Guidance nicely trumped...
Sony must still control the experience on PCs if it sells. While all the attention is on Microsoft, it appears that Sony is looking to quietly get rid of its PC business. This is not a big deal in itself but if one considers the ecosystem that Sony is trying to build, this is a...
The opportunity is at risk from taking the easy option. The naming of Satya Nadella as the next CEO could cause some wild gyrations in the share price. The market wants Nadella as CEO because it believes that his strategic choice will be to break the company up to focus on just Enterprise (see here)....
Being limited to social networking will not hit growth in 2014. Facebook reported strong Q4 results as it continued to improve on its ability to monetise the traffic being generated by mobile devices in its ecosystem. Revenues / EPS were $2.39 / $0.31 compared to estimates of $2.35bn / $0.27 where mobile revenues drove most...
Google is taking big steps to bring Android to maturity. Selling Motorola Mobility is a further step by Google to mature its ecosystem from the rather chaotic reality in which it currently exists. Google has finally decided to get rid of Motorola Mobility letting it go to Lenovo for around half what it paid for...
Alibaba grabs attention but upside is in the ecosystem. The value in Yahoo! continues to be driven by the Asian affiliates while the core business drifts gently downwards. This is disturbing but also where the opportunity is to be found if Marissa can live up to her billing. Revenues / EPS were $1.2bn / $0.33...
Services are what really matters for long term profitability. Apple reported disappointing Q2 results as it missed iPhone shipments which cast a pall over the superb performance of the iPad and the Mac. Q2 results Q2A Consensus iPhone (m) 51m 55.3m iPad (m) 26m 24.9m Mac (m) 4.8m 4.6m iTunes ($m) $4.4bn $4.5bn...
The value is there but Samsung is driven by earnings. Samsung’s Q4 was in line with estimates but I am getting increasingly concerned with its loss of momentum. Samsung has a window (see here) to move to the next phase of its development but the window is narrower than I had previously thought. Revenues /...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
Nintendo – The thin red line.
The 3DS gives Nintendo some time but it must act now. Given, its awful performance to date, Nintendo’s results surprised me but they do nothing to avert the issues that the company currently faces. Nintendo sold 1.95m Wii U units during Q4 which combined with reasonable sales of the 3DS allowed the company to make...