USA vs. China – King Qwen

Good Chinese AI but at what cost? Alibaba’s models have topped the new rankings at Hugging Face in a sign that China is a force to be reckoned with in AI even without leading-edge semiconductors. However, like in advanced semiconductors, the battle will be won or lost on who can produce the product most economically, and here the US still...

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Micron FQ3 24 – AI Canary?

Micron spooks the fickle market Another correction from an AI-related company has the market asking whether the question as whether the AI bubble is beginning to burst which is a question that only Nvidia will be able to answer. Micron reported good FQ3 results but failed to guide as strongly as many had hoped raising fears that demand for AI...

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Rivian & VW – Desperation Bedfellows

VW & Rivian rescue each other.  VW’s $5bn investment is precisely what Rivian needs to prevent it from suffering Fisker’s fate but at the same time, it is quite possible that VW needs Rivian just as much and could easily end up acquiring the company. VW and Rivian are establishing a joint venture that will focus on the creation of...

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OpenAI & Microsoft – ChatCopilot

OpenAI bites the hand that feeds it.  Despite the inevitability of ending up as part of Microsoft, Open AI is determined to compete with Copilot and is making acquisitions to bolster its service to prevent early subscribers from defecting to Microsoft’s Copilot. OpenAI was first out of the gate with an enterprise offering by adapting ChatGPT to have a large...

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The Metaverse – Dark Horse of WWDC

A winning product with almost no sales.  While Apple Intelligence got all of the attention at WWDC, an extraordinary amount of content was provided to developers on how to develop apps for VisionOS for a product that has almost no users. This would appear to be counterintuitive until one considers that in the very long-term some form of augmented reality...

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Artificial Intelligence – The Asymptote

Only AGI can prevent a correction.  More companies and more models all of whom perform within a fairly close range but consume billions of dollars in investment capital point to a correction and a shake-out that only a few will survive. The advent of generative AI powered by large language models (LLMs) has turned the technology sector and many others...

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Apple Intelligence – Chinese Elephants

The problem is much worse than ChatGPT.  A hyperbolic keynote and a $300bn rally later and no one has yet asked how Apple will tackle the problem of rolling out its shiny new AI service in China as the architecture of Apple Intelligence runs completely contrary to the way China likes to do things. Apple Intelligence is constructed from three...

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China vs. USA – Admission of Reality

Huawei says the quiet part out loud.   Huawei has admitted that true leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing is unlikely to be achieved in China, meaning that homegrown technologies that rely on leading-edge semiconductors are going to be more difficult and more expensive to develop. At the 2024 China Mobile Computing Power Network event, Huawei Executive Zhang Pingan gave a keynote where...

Eid el Adha – Back Wednesday June 19

RFM will return after the Eid el Adha holiday on Wednesday 19th June. 

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Electric Vehicles – Unready for Reality pt. III

EU tariffs will weaken demand further.   The EU has announced import tariffs on Chinese EVs that are likely to trigger a retaliation and an increase in price to the European consumer of an EV is likely to slow adoption even further. Recent years have seen Chinese companies make real progress in vehicle manufacturing such that they are currently able...

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