Mr Altman’s agenda continues to defy gravity and reality. Sam Altman and Open AI appear to be intending to take over both the entire technology industry and everyone’s personal devices with schemes that sound as outlandish as those attached to the Internet in 2000 and autonomous driving in 2017. Sam Altman is currently on a tour in the Middle East...
It will soon be much cheaper. Google has launched a new version of its generative AI and followed everyone else down the $20 per user per month business model, but as it appears to be pretty similar to the other models available, I expect that price erosion will set in pretty quickly. Google has made several changes involving its AI...
Arm silences the critics of last quarter Arm topped off a good set of earnings that silenced its critics and added a sprinkle of AI pixie dust that gave the market confidence that the AI story is real driving the shares up 19% in after-hours trading. FQ3 revenues / Adj-EPS were $824m / $0.29 ahead of estimates of $762m /...
Multi-patterning is an economic dead end. Huawei and SMIC appear to be in a position to mass manufacture leading-edge semiconductors but flooding the market with cheap semiconductors will require them to manufacture chips economically, which looks impossible given the techniques that they are using. The Financial Times (see here) has an exclusive with multiple sources claiming that SMIC is setting...
Foundation model is to AI what OS is to smartphone. While everyone is going to be focused on inference in 2024, the real action is going to be in the ecosystem where new players and old will slug it out to ensure that users and developers use their models as opposed to anyone else’s. The players are all working to...
Meta pushes the open-source button. Excellent results, more fat trimming, a dividend, and a share buyback hid higher losses from the Metaverse and more capex allowing a fire to be lit under the shares. Q4 2023 revenues / EPS were $40.1bn / $5.33 where profits beat by more than revenues against consensus of $39.1bn / $4.82. The key to the...
Apple remains toothless. Good results combined with further confirmation that Apple is in no position to restart its patent fight with Qualcomm, result in a company with good short and long-term prospects trading at a reasonable price. FQ1 24 revenues / Adj-EPS were $9.9bn / $2.75 ahead of estimates at $9.5bn / $2.37 which combined with a steady outlook confirms...
Google fails to blow its own trumpet. Alphabet reported good results but one tiny miss combined with vague and non-specific answers to easy questions on the conference call gave the market an excuse to take profits on what has been a great run. Q4 revenues-exTAC / EPS of $72.3bn / $1.64 were better than forecasts of $71.0bn / $1.59 but...
Nvidia can sleep well for now. Competing with Nvidia is currently focused on building better chips but this is ignoring Nvidia’s two key differentiators which mean that for now, no one is going to lay a glove on Nvidia. There is almost unlimited capital for investing in AI startups at the moment and outside of large language models (LLMs), the...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
OpenAI – Numbers game
OpenAI’s numbers look like they have been cherry-picked. OpenAI’s growth looks explosive at first glance but digging into some of the details and making deductions along the way results in a very different picture. Analysis of the scraps that OpenAI has allowed to fall into the public domain reveals a good business case but also a host of questions. First...