The red herrings of Microsoft, Google and AMD spoil good results. Both Qualcomm and Arm reported good results, but the weaknesses seen at Microsoft Google and AMD made investors skittish although those weaknesses have no bearing on either Arm or Qualcomm. Arm FQ3 25 revenues / Adj-EPS of $983m / $0.39 ahead of estimates of $947m / $0.34 and it...
Google Q4 24 – Core business still sound. Alphabet reported disappointing sales as, like Microsoft, it could not keep up with demand for its cloud services, sending the shares down 9%, creating an opportunity for those interested in growth at a reasonable price. Q4 24 revenues / EPS were $94.5bn / $2.15 missing revenue forecasts but beating profit expectations of...
The big question is why China has allowed R1 to be exported. DeepSeek is quickly becoming infamous as Western companies, institutions and governments ban the use of the DeepSeek chatbot service but the real value of DeepSeek to the industry is in the methods that it used to achieve leading-edge performance at a fraction of the cost. If these methods...
OpenAI tries to put RFM out of business. OpenAI’s new Deep Research offers a new functionality that takes the grunt work out of conducting research but without insight, the ability to be contrarian and data that sits behind a paywall, I think RFM and Counterpoint Research are safe for a while yet. Deep Research is a new tool that will...
No growth and no confidence. Apple FQ1 25 – Still no growth. Apple reported good results despite weakness in China but credited Apple Intelligence for the interest in the iPhone 16 which I suspect is misplaced. FQ1 25 revenues / net income were $124.3bn / $36.3bn slightly ahead of forecasts of $124.1bn / $35.5bn. iPhone sales were slightly weaker than...
Both relatively immune from the DeepSeek effect. Microsoft FQ2 25 – DeepSeek on the menu Microsoft disappointed the market with the growth of its cloud division but as the reason for this was supply constraint rather than demand, this is hardly an issue to get too worried about. FQ2 25 revenue / EPS came in at $69.6bn / $3.23 broadly...
Meta has returned to seeding the market. Meta’s Reality Labs has had a good 2024 from a sales perspective but this is because Meta has returned to seeding the nascent Metaverse market as losses in 2024 are likely to be the biggest ever. According to an internal memo, Reality Labs has beaten its sales targets and grown 40% YoY most...
DeepSeek’s techniques need to be independently verified. It is not DeepSeek R1’s performance that is surprising, but how cheaply the company was able to train its model that has sent shockwaves through the AI industry and rattled the cage of the stock market. Hardly anyone paid attention to DeepSeek when its R1 model was conveniently launched on the same day...
CarPlay 2.0 continues to struggle. The next version of CarPlay is certainly not the apple of carmakers’ eyes as the promised launches have failed to materialise adding support to RFM’s view that CarPlay 2.0 and beyond represents a greater threat to OEMs than Google does. 2 ½ years ago, Apple announced that CarPlay was being extended to the instrument cluster...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
Amazon Q4 24 – Capex, Capex & Capex.
AI is expensive or is it? Amazon reported good results but its inability to accelerate growth at AWS and its $100bn capex bill for 2025 has raised concern just at a time when everyone is questioning whether AI, as it is done in the West, is ridiculously inefficient. Q4 revenues / Adj-EPS were $187.8bn / $1.86 which was in line...