Artificial Intelligence – Reality baseline

2 good use cases for LLMs Bloomberg’s implementation of a chatbot using its own data and my own assessment of Bard, ChatGPT, Bing and so on leads to my conclusion that there are effectively 2 good use cases for large language models (LLMs) which could be very valuable within a reasonable time frame. Every man and his dog are racing...

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Apple & the Metaverse – Mixed signals

Will he or won’t he? Tim Cook’s change of tone combined with endless leaks suggest that a Metaverse device is imminent however it still makes no sense to launch now and I have my doubts it will launch at WWDC. Despite the probability of further delays to the launch of a Metaverse device, the Apple marketing machine is already beginning...

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China vs. USA – Japan and Micron

Japan: the samurai strikes. Japan has entered the fray and put in place restrictions on semiconductor exports that are more draconian than the USA and where the Japanese state has effectively taken control of its semiconductor capital equipment market. Japan is imposing export restrictions on 23 types of equipment used to make semiconductors but instead of limiting it just to...

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Autonomous driving – The FOMO signal

When FOMO bails, it is time to consider buying. Ford’s signalling of its intention to exit autonomous driving marks a point of capitulation for the momentum tourists implying that only the serious players are left and that perhaps the time is ripe to buy the distressed assets. Ford has informed the NHTSA (US road safety regulator) that it is not...

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Microsoft – Advertisements for all

Turns out this stuff is expensive. Microsoft is moving to add advertising to its Bing GPT-4-powered chat service in a clear indication that large language models (LLMs) are very expensive to create and run which I think is a positive signal for Google. Bing has certainly seen an increase in usage as it now lays claim to 100m daily users...

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Alibaba – The empire breaks up

State oversight is the driver. Shareholder value has little to do with Alibaba’s decision to reorganize and much more to do with providing the state with better visibility and control over the large range of its activities. Following on from the National People’s Congress, Alastair Newton and I have observed a range of reforms and changes being announced that have...

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Lyft – Founder flounder

New CEO looks wrong for the job. Lyft’s founders have stepped back from running their company and have appointed a new CEO who, on the surface, appears to be wholly unequipped to deal with the difficult situation in which the company finds itself as well as its large and brutal competitor. Founders John Zimmer and Logan Green are stepping back...

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Apple & the Metaverse – Too many Cooks?

Metaverse now is a risky proposition. It looks like Apple has caved to pressure and is going to press ahead with the launch of a Metaverse device this year and without the guiding hand of Steve Jobs or Jony Ive, this is a risky proposition. I have long been dubious as to whether Apple would launch a Metaverse device before...

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TikTok – Chewed up.

Judged guilty before proceedings started. TikTok has been eviscerated by both sides of the house in what was a pretty unfair hearing that looks likely to end in an outright ban of TikTok handing an advantage straight to Meta Platforms and Snap. TikTok CEO Shou Chew testified before the House Energy and Commerce Committee where he received a universally hostile...

Tencent Q4 2022 – Somewhat green

Chinese tech remains hostage to the economy. Tencent reported mediocre results and said that it was well positioned for an economic recovery but signs of this recovery and action from the state to stimulate a recovery remain frustratingly absent. Q4 2022 revenues / EPS were RMB145bn up 0.5% YoY / RMB10.98 up 19% YoY both of which were broadly in...

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