Sydney behaves like a sociopath and will make a horrible business. Underneath the hype is a growing thread of incidents that point to a singular weakness in AI that no amount of money, data, compute power or humans scrambling to correct behaviour or factual errors is ever going to fix. In short, I continue to believe that deep neural networks...
Three segments. Three stories. Shopify and Cisco reported wildly differing results which combined with economic stimulus sets up 3 divergent themes for the technology sector in 2023. Shopify reported Q4 2022 results that beat expectations but then guided that revenue growth would slow more than expected in Q1 2023. Expectations were that revenues would grow by 20% YoY in Q1...
Airbnb Q4 2022 – Unrivalled. Airbnb reported results that were in line with expectations but the recovery in travel, especially in China, allowed the company to guide ahead of expectations for Q1 2023. Q4 2022 revenues / EPS were $1.9bn / $0.48 compared to forecasts of $1.9bn / $0.27. Q1 2023 revenue is expected to be $1.75bn – $1.82bn ahead...
A schizophrenic OS that no one will want to use The new Indian OS for smartphones doesn’t really know what it wants to be, but I think it will appeal to government entities and enterprises with very little interest coming from consumers who have long since sold their digital souls to Google. BharOS is a new OS based on Android...
Microsoft goes back to square one. Microsoft has shut down its enterprise Metaverse strategy in a move that can only mean that what it had was going nowhere and that it needs to stop everything and start again. In October 2022 Microsoft announced the formation of a new team called Industrial Metaverse Core that aimed to deliver software for companies...
The inevitable trend begins to emerge. Lyft reported weak results and guided badly in strong contrast to Uber which is a sign that Uber’s superior size and network effect are finally beginning to turn the screw on Lyft. Q4 22 revenues / adj-EBITDA of $1.2bn / LOSS $248m which was broadly in line with consensus but guided badly for Q1...
Google trips over its own feet as a result of its panic. Google is in such a blind panic that it is rushing to market with products and events that are half-baked simply to meet a competitive threat that in my opinion does not exist. Google held an AI event in Paris combined with demonstrations online that were so full...
STOP PRESS Updates below with more details on adjusted EBITDA vs. Pre-tax profit. Buried on page 24 of the earnings statement from SoftBank are details of the amortisation of intangibles taken by SoftBank during the first 9 months of fiscal 2022. This amortisation is not a write-down of goodwill but amortisation that has been scheduled over the course of SoftBank’s...
Look for the picks and shovels of this latest bubble. Google is rushing to market with a competitor for ChatGPT triggering an arms race which will end with huge losses when reality pricks yet another bubble triggering the 4th AI Winter. Google has made two moves very recently: First, Anthropic: Google has made a $300m investment in an OpenAI competitor...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
Digital Ecosystems – Privacy as a product
Subscription is unlikely to do very much for anyone. In response to slower growth and Apple’s depredations upon data collection, the digital ecosystems are experimenting with subscriptions, but RFM research has long indicated that this is not a particularly viable alternative. Meta Platforms is the latest ecosystem that monetizes through advertising to try its hand at subscription with an $11.99...