Peloton is under assault on all fronts. Peloton is a warning to anyone who has invested in narrative-driven stocks that when the story breaks and the fundamentals start to matter again, the result is agonising. Peloton reported good FQ1 2021 results relative to expectations but was forced to greatly reduce guidance for the full year to June 2022 as demand...
Qualcomm is the exception to shortages. Qualcomm reported good results and guided well which I think demonstrated more about the company’s ability to execute as opposed to sending a signal about a loosening of the global supply situation. FQ4 2021 revenues / EPS were $9.3bn / $2.45 compared to forecasts of $8.9bn / $1.95 and the company guided well for...
Games are about loyalty for now. Netflix has launched a suite of exclusive games for mobile devices that will be soon made available to Android users but the service will need to be just as easy and fun to use on iOS devices if Netflix wants the service to be successful in growing user loyalty. The launch follows a signalling...
The public market will take no prisoners. Rivian’s valuation at IPO of $60bn (post-money) is lower than the $80bn mooted but it is still way above anything that a reasonable investor would consider fair, meaning that this green management team has to execute flawlessly to avoid ruthless punishment. Rivian is aiming to raise $8.4bn at around $62 per share (top...
Zuckerberg bets his company on the Metaverse. Mark Zuckerberg is betting his company on the Metaverse, and while it is making the right noises, it is clear that this was his decision and his decision alone. This highlights one of the key risks of companies where founders have control through super-voting share distributions because if this turns out to be...
Apple FQ4 2021 – Not so chipper. Apple reported disappointing results as a result of the ongoing supply chain difficulties and also warned that the problems were getting worse going into Q4 2021. Revenues / EPS were $83.4bn / $1.24 behind forecasts of $84.7bn / $1.24 and it warned that the supply chain issues would cause $6bn of demand to...
Some semis are value stocks. Samsung fleshed out its preliminary report by reporting another very good quarter supported by strong chip pricing thanks to the current shortage. Despite signs that the cycle may be peaking, Samsung has already sold off quite some distance and is beginning to look attractive again on valuation. Q3 2021 revenues / net income were KRW74.0tn...
Alphabet Q3 2021 – Very little Apple effect. Alphabet reported excellent results but weakness at YouTube, Google Cloud, and a muted share price response continue to imply that the shares are fully valued leaving me pretty unexcited. Q3 2021 revenues ex-TAC / EPS were $53.6bn / $27.99 compared to estimates of $52.6bn / $23.50 as most of the business was...
Facebook puts its money where its mouth is. Users are still not deserting Facebook despite all of the bad press but the real story here is that Facebook is going to invest at least $10bn a year in building the Metaverse. Facebook reported reasonable results but there are significant headwinds that will take some time to deal with which will...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
Meta (Facebook) – Circumnavigation.
Meta’s trip around the Digital Life Pie begins. Hot on the heels of its name change, Meta has begun to do exactly what I suspected which is to acquire both the technologies and services that it lacks in order to have a complete ecosystem for the Metaverse when it is ready. It has only taken two days for Meta to...