The pandemic is in the driving seat. The pandemic trade is back with homeworking and homeschooling driving the results of both Microsoft and AMD, but this may grind to a halt in calendar Q2 as the summer banishes the virus for 6 months or so. Microsoft FQ2 2021 – Perfect storm. Microsoft has been the best exposed of all the...
Tesla is barking up the wrong tree. The biggest disagreement in the autonomous automobile industry has heated up once again with Waymo’s CEO once again dissing Tesla’s camera-only approach to autonomous driving. RFM has conducted extensive analysis in this area and has concluded that while Tesla’s approach is the right approach, it has a greatly inflated opinion of its capability...
This is Intel’s make or break moment. Intel’s determination to return to manufacturing supremacy is existential because if Geisinger fails, the vultures will break-up the company and sell off the pieces sending another American titan to the graveyard to rub shoulders with Motorola. The market’s reaction is indicative of just how short-term obsessed it is as there is absolutely no...
Intel Q4 2020 – The hard road. Intel reported good results and guidance but the new CEO’s commitment to manufacturing sent skittish investors running for the hills. Q4 2020 revenues / EPS were $20.0bn / $1.42 nicely ahead of consensus of $17.5bn / $1.04 as the new lockdowns spurred further demand for homeworking & home-schooling tools of which Intel is...
An automobile could be a sell signal. It has been a very long time since Apple has made a serious mistake but the commercial launch of an electric vehicle could very well be the moment that heralds the end of the uptrend as falling margins could significantly undermine its valuation. Unlike previous rounds of speculation around a move into the...
The autonomous software industry has a value of $44.3bn. Microsoft has participated in a $2bn funding round that values Cruise at more than $30bn which seems to be assuming that Cruise will end up the biggest player with over 50% market share. By contrast, I think that there will be many offerings and the time will eventually come when autonomous...
Arm & NVIDIA. The risk of China causing a problem for NVIDIA’s acquisition of Arm is increasing as the dispute between SoftBank and Arm China’s CEO, Allen Wu shows no sign of ending. Despite a 7-1 vote to remove him by the Arm China board, Mr Wu still has control of the company under the old Chinese corporate system as...
Xiaomi blacklist stretches logic. Xiaomi’s blacklisting looks more like an outgoing administration leaving stumbling blocks for the next inhabitant rather than a rational move to contain the rise of China. The US government has added Xiaomi and eight other companies to a blacklist which forbids US citizens and corporations from investing in the shares of companies on the blacklist. This...
Bad for Apple but good for almost everybody else. The colossal price being paid by Qualcomm in combination with the legal tussle between Apple and its former employees that founded NUVIA imply that the huge step forward taken by Apple with its M1 processor is not patentable and will spread through the industry. This is bad news for Apple as...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
Medical Wearables – Quest for the grail.
The pilgrims are still far away from the holy land. Much is being made for the potential for the Galaxy Watch 4 and the Apple Watch 7 to measure blood glucose but their inability to conquer the easier task of blood pressure highlights just how hard these goals are to reach. The realistic outlook is that these devices will provide...