Dreams trump arithmetic for now. Rivian is coming to market at $78 a share giving it a valuation of $77bn despite not having sold a single vehicle. Furthermore, no one is even bothering to discuss unimportant issues like revenue or cash flow preferring instead to rely on the “dreams” that are being sold by the management and its advisors. These...
Roblox confirms that it is not Peloton. Roblox has exited the pandemic in good shape despite its users getting out and about again confirming that it is a proper contender for the Metaverse if or when it comes to the mass market. Q3 2021 bookings / EPS were $637.8m / LOSS$0.13 which was ahead of expectations of $624.2m / LOSS$0.04....
Meta’s trip around the Digital Life Pie begins. Hot on the heels of its name change, Meta has begun to do exactly what I suspected which is to acquire both the technologies and services that it lacks in order to have a complete ecosystem for the Metaverse when it is ready. It has only taken two days for Meta to...
Peloton is under assault on all fronts. Peloton is a warning to anyone who has invested in narrative-driven stocks that when the story breaks and the fundamentals start to matter again, the result is agonising. Peloton reported good FQ1 2021 results relative to expectations but was forced to greatly reduce guidance for the full year to June 2022 as demand...
Qualcomm is the exception to shortages. Qualcomm reported good results and guided well which I think demonstrated more about the company’s ability to execute as opposed to sending a signal about a loosening of the global supply situation. FQ4 2021 revenues / EPS were $9.3bn / $2.45 compared to forecasts of $8.9bn / $1.95 and the company guided well for...
Games are about loyalty for now. Netflix has launched a suite of exclusive games for mobile devices that will be soon made available to Android users but the service will need to be just as easy and fun to use on iOS devices if Netflix wants the service to be successful in growing user loyalty. The launch follows a signalling...
The public market will take no prisoners. Rivian’s valuation at IPO of $60bn (post-money) is lower than the $80bn mooted but it is still way above anything that a reasonable investor would consider fair, meaning that this green management team has to execute flawlessly to avoid ruthless punishment. Rivian is aiming to raise $8.4bn at around $62 per share (top...
Zuckerberg bets his company on the Metaverse. Mark Zuckerberg is betting his company on the Metaverse, and while it is making the right noises, it is clear that this was his decision and his decision alone. This highlights one of the key risks of companies where founders have control through super-voting share distributions because if this turns out to be...
Apple FQ4 2021 – Not so chipper. Apple reported disappointing results as a result of the ongoing supply chain difficulties and also warned that the problems were getting worse going into Q4 2021. Revenues / EPS were $83.4bn / $1.24 behind forecasts of $84.7bn / $1.24 and it warned that the supply chain issues would cause $6bn of demand to...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
Tencent Q3 2021 – The overhang
Regulatory overhang remains. A slow down in growth at Tencent was mitigated somewhat by international expansion but could hide the fact that the regulatory spectre still looms large over this company particularly in financial services. Q3 2021 revenues / operating profit were RMB142.4 ($22.0bn) / RMB40.8bn a little behind estimates of RMB146.0bn / RMB40.2bn which sent the shares down...