Qualcomm closes out the win.
- Qualcomm has completed its win in the case brought by Arm, but unfortunately, hostilities will not end there, as there is a countersuit in the works, dashing my hopes of a reconciliation and a subsequent joint effort to take the fight to x86, which remains in a very weak position.
- Back in December 2024 (see here), the jury found that Qualcomm was not in breach of the Nuvia contract with Arm and that Qualcomm’s Orion processors were properly licensed under Qualcomm’s existing architecture licence with Arm.
- However, the jury was deadlocked on the question of whether Nuvia had breached its licence with Arm, and it is on this basis that Arm could seek a retrial.
- This issue was settled yesterday with the Delaware District Court finding that Nuvia was not in breach of its architecture licensing agreement (ALA) and rejecting Arm’s request for a new trial.
- The key to this finding is that it is a full and final determination, meaning that there are no appeals and that the matter (as far as the court is concerned) is closed.
- Hence, there is no way for Arm to relitigate or appeal any of these findings, meaning that this is the end of the road unless it has a new complaint up its sleeve.
- Qualcomm’s current contract expires in 2028, but Qualcomm has the option to extend this until 2033, which, as things stand today, I am certain that it will exercise.
- Hence, Qualcomm should be able to continue to ship all of its Arm-based products without having to enter into any negotiations with Arm for another 8 years.
- However, there is the issue of v10, which will be the next version of the Arm instruction set, which I expect will be released by Arm sometime around 2028 or 2029, based on Arm’s history.
- If there are new features in v10 that necessitate a quick move to v10 in order to remain competitive, then Qualcomm will have to take a v10 license before 2033.
- I do not think that this will be the case, as there are always areas of overlap between the last versions of one instruction set and the early versions of the next one.
- However, if Qualcomm does need v10 before 2033, then it will be in a difficult position because Arm’s design is not an official standard, and so it does not have to adhere to the fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory (FRAND) principle that governs the licensing of standard essential patents.
- Hence, Arm can be as unreasonable as it wants when it negotiates with Qualcomm, which will put Qualcomm in a difficult position in 2033 or earlier if it turns out it needs v10 before that time.
- 8 years is a long time in the technology industry, and the landscape may be materially different by this time, making any prediction very unreliable.
- I had been hoping that this might end the hostilities, leading to a rapprochement and the two companies working more closely together, but this is unlikely to be the case.
- Qualcomm has filed a countersuit alleging “breach of contract, improper interference with customer relationships, and for Arm’s pattern of conduct seeking to hinder innovation and better position Arm’s own products over its long-standing partners”.
- This will come to court in 2026, meaning that the companies are still only speaking to each other via their lawyers.
- This is unfortunate as the Arm architecture is gaining traction in many segments outside of smartphones, of which the PC and data centre are two of the most promising.
- The industry standard in both of these segments is x86, and with Intel on its knees and the deal with Nvidia unlikely to fix the shortcomings of x86 compared to Arm, now is the time to go on the offensive.
- I think that this offensive would be much more effective and result in market share shifting to Arm more quickly if the Arm camp were all pulling together and not fighting each other.
- Hence, other than Qualcomm, the real winner here is Intel, which remains in deep trouble but is being given more breathing space as a result of two of its biggest rivals fighting each other rather than Intel.
