Volvo & Ericsson – Scroogled?

Google’s automotive deals may be coming unstuck.

  • Volvo and Ericsson have signed a 5-year digital automotive deal that leaves me wondering whether all the fanfare about Volvo using Android in its vehicles was nothing more than noise.
  • Volvo has signed a worldwide agreement with Ericsson that will see Google use Ericsson infrastructure and software to deliver both automotive and infotainment services to Volvo vehicles in more than 120 markets globally.
  • The deal will be in place for 5 years and represents the biggest deal yet signed for Ericsson Connected Vehicle Cloud.
  • While it is no surprise to see Volvo go with Ericsson, there is no mention of Google or Android which is unexpected given that Volvo has entered into an agreement with Google to use Android Automotive in its vehicles.
  • There are two types of Android for vehicles:
    • First: Android Auto. This is simply a system for projecting apps running on an Android smartphone onto the infotainment unit of a vehicle.
    • It also allows those apps to be controlled using certain hardware that is present in the vehicle such as knobs, speakers etc.
    • Despite Google’s hopes, OEMs have not allowed Android Auto to access sensor data leading Google to develop Android Automotive.
    • Second, Android Automotive: This is a full version of Android running in the infotainment unit replacing the OEM’s proprietary software and which should get access to all of the data generated by the vehicle.
  • Google’s intent in the vehicle is simple: to get access to the sensor data generated by the vehicle, learn more about the vehicle and its occupants and monetise that data through advertising.
  • When Android Auto failed to achieve this aim, Google took it a step further which has yielded some agreements but no real results to date.
  • One of these agreements was with Volvo and Audi where these car makers agreed to use “manufacturer tweaked” versions of Android in some or all of their vehicles.
  • The definition of “manufacturer tweaked” is very vague meaning that the OEM could completely lock Google out of its head unit or give it full access.
  • If there is no deal for data, then there is very little point for Google to put time and effort into getting Android Automotive into the infotainment units of vehicles.
  • Consequently, I have always thought that the deal with Volvo and Audi had at least some data element to it.
  • However, Volvo’s deal with Ericsson leads me to think otherwise.
  • Volvo can still use Android in its vehicles but if it is going to use Ericsson for all of its digital services, then there is no real place for Google.
  • This leads me to think that in Volvo’s case if it uses Android at all, it will tweak it so much that it effectively becomes a Volvo proprietary Android fork where Google has been locked out.
  • I would also not be surprised to see the same from Audi.
  • The net result may be that Google has only one real data provider in vehicles which is the deal that it recently signed with the Renault Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance.
  • This is a big deal but with the turmoil currently going on inside the alliance, this too may be in some doubt.
  • It is still early days in the bunfight for vehicle data and while Google has made some early wins, these may be coming unstuck.
  • There is still everything to play for.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.