Flexible Displays – The Lion’s Den

Flexible screens are Samsung’s patch, not Apple’s   

• Apple Patent applications and job filings are an admission of what I have long suspected.
• Flexible and bendable screens are not just a fad but could define the next generation of form factor in the handset and tablet arena.
• From the end of 2011 and steadily through 2012, Apple has been filing patents regarding the use of bendable and flexible displays in handsets.
• Earlier this month, Apple briefly posted an advertisement for a display expert to look the next generation of displays including flexible displays.
• I see flexible displays emerging in three main generations.
  • First, flat displays using plastic rather than glass as a substrate.
  • Second, displays that have rigid curves built into them.
  • Third, displays that can be rolled up, bent and folded post manufacture.
• Should these prove popular, and there is every reason to think that they will be, then I think Apple is in big trouble.
• Simply put, this is Samsung’s backyard and it is likely to have screens at commercial yields long before anyone else
• Hence, it is Samsung that will lead this market not Apple. 
• This is nothing new for Samsung, which has been showcasing prototypes for over two years but has yet to launch a commercial product.  
• The problem is in the encapsulation of the display where I understand that Samsung has been struggling with both reliability and yield.
• This is why the displays have been delayed and why there is no product in the market despite repeated promises of a “tablet or a phone this year”.
• When they are ready, I would expect Samsung to keep its entire production in house for the first few generations before making the screens available to outside customers.
• Even then, I think that the latest and greatest will be kept in house with only the older generations being made freely available.
• This will work as long as Samsung has the market for flexible displays cornered.
• When LGD and the others catch up, then things will change but this might take a while.
• This means that Samsung will be in the market first with these screens allowing it to launch form factors that none of its competitors can.
• As hardware continues to commoditise, this will be key to keeping Samsung differentiated and comfortably profitable while it develops its software strategy to compete in a post hardware world.
• I think that this will give Samsung 2-3 years breathing space before its software and services will need to be delighting users.
• This means that Samsung does not have to come up with a winning ecosystem of its own before 2016 or 2017.
• Despite this big cushion, Rome was not built in a day and software is still not a strength within Samsung despite its recent improvements.