Quibi signals that peak mania is close. The fact that Quibi can credibly entertain the prospect of raising more money, selling itself or going public is a sign that there is way too much money sloshing around in the system and that a big correction is imminent just as it was 20 years ago. Quibi was a bad idea demonstrated...
Now it comes down to China. Its looks like Oracle and TikTok have made just enough concessions to pass the US administration but now comes the test of whether these concessions are too much for China. The general agreement is that TikTok (outside of China) will be spun out into a new entity (valued at $60bn (see below) of which...
The margin by which this deal is approved is wafer-thin. The fact that Oracle will have access to TikTok’s algorithms and source code greatly increases the chances of the deal being approved by the US administration, but it also greatly increases the chances of it being blocked by China. The first details of the deal between TikTok and Oracle (see...
Mid-market makes sense for services. Behind the funky new watch features and the new, more expensive iPad Air are cheaper versions which are clearly aimed at keeping shipments going through what is going to be a difficult period. Apple also moved to add life to its services offerings which outside of Music have not fared very well to date. Apple...
YouTube joins the kettle of vultures. YouTube, Riposo, Facebook et al show just how easy it is to replicate the TikTok experience in India which should send a shiver down the spine of ByteDance which is running the risk of the same thing happening in the USA. YouTube has announced a new service called YouTube Shorts that will imminently launch...
Another unthinkable event to add to 2020’s long list. For nearly 20 years I have strongly believed that Arm could not be acquired by another semiconductor company as Arm’s acceptance as an industry-standard has hinged on its independence which will now be at greater risk than it was as a public company or part of SoftBank. The open-source alternative (RISC-V)...
ByteDance is playing a dangerous game TikTok’s deal with Oracle may not satisfy the concerns of the US administration meaning that the service ends up being blocked presenting an open goal to both Snap and Facebook. Oracle and ByteDance have announced a “technical partnership” that does not involve a full sale but where Oracle will manage and run all of...
TikTok lobbies for an extension TikTok’s transparency briefing actually explains very little about how the algorithm works and looks to me to be an attempt to get the press to lobby the US administration for an extension to the September 15th deadline after which TikTok will be blocked. TikTok held a virtual media event on Wednesday that attempted to explain...
Slack is not as essential as its valuation implies Comparing Q2 2020 for both Zoom and Slack is a strong indicator that the recovery is not that strong at the smaller end of the market which is where the real recovery needs to happen. Slack and Zoom both derive a large proportion of their revenues from small and mid-size businesses...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
Tesla Battery Day – Fluff-free
Lack of fluff underpins credibility. The lack of fluff and hyperbole on display gave Tesla much better credibility that the advances it announced in its battery technology are real and will be delivered within the stated time frame. This in stark contrast to the autonomous driving day (see here) where unrealistic claims about autopilot’s ability, timelines and a robotaxi business...