Android – Critical weakness

 

 

 

 

 

  • Without a shadow of doubt, Android dominates the unit volume statistics but in order to have real long-term value to Google and those who make the devices, the users have to be loyal to the ecosystem.
  • This is where I question the value of Android, as I believe that users have yet to develop the kind of loyalty that Nokia saw in its heyday and that Apple enjoys now.
  • Without this loyalty, Android will eventually fall prey to the next and greatest thing that emerges in the handset space, which is increasingly looking like an easy, integrated and cool user experience (like Apple) but a cheaper price.
  • This is where I believe that Android falls over as to get Android really working the user must do a lot of systems integration himself, something I believe that most users have neither time nor the technology know-how to do.
  • The evidence is everywhere. The latest is from (http://insights.chitika.com/2012/iphone-5-galaxy-s-iii-study/) which has surveyed the web traffic from the Samsung Galaxy SIII and iPhone 5 over 7 days from October 3rd to October 9th.
  • Here the Apple iPhone 5 took 56% of the traffic compared to the SIII which took 44%.
  • Of course this data is full of holes, but remember that Samsung recently boasted of selling 20m SIIIs whereas supply had constrained Apple to around a quarter of that total at that time.
  • This contrast is so striking that it more than makes up for any shortcomings in the survey methodology.
  • The conclusion is inescapable: iPhone 5 users use much more traffic than SIII users.
  • This and all of the other analyses point in the same direction:
  • There are huge benefits and value in an integrated, easy to use, switch-it-on-and-it-just-works experience which Android still sorely lacks.
  • This is a major reason why iPhone loyalty is so high and why I believe that loyalty to Android is not.
  • At the moment there is no real contest. Either you buy iOS or you buy Android and I believe that Android is a great choice for many, as you get a lot more hardware bang for your buck and an OK user experience.
  • It is here that Android’s underbelly is exposed.
  • What happens when there is a user experience that is: 1) as easy to use as Apple’s, 2) more integrated than Apple and 3) available at a great price on good hardware?
  • This is why I believe that all the fuss about Android vs. iOS is overblown.
  • The real war will be Android vs. Microsoft Windows Phone 8.
  • Microsoft has all the tools, the assets and the talent to take a large slice of share from Android but its travails over the last 16 years cast severe doubts about its ability to execute on that dream.
  • War will be fully declared on October 26th.

 

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.

Blog Comments

From Microsoft EMEA: We are ready 🙂

[…] looks weak and vulnerable (See here for details) and there is potential for a big upheaval in the current status […]

[…] I see this as yet another nail in the coffin of loyalty to Android. (See here for others) […]

[…] I have long been of the opinion that the weakness of Android lies in its usability which I think ranks far behind that of iOS. see here). […]

[…] usage implies much lower loyalty (see here) and a much greater willingness to switch if offered something […]

[…] is certainly opportunity in developed markets as Android looks very vulnerable but to attack that market, but Jolla needs to rein the price in to be […]

[…] This is why I prefer to rely on data that has been adjusted for the demographic effect when comparing Android against iOS and drawing conclusions on loyalty. (see here) […]

[…] is certainly opportunity in developed markets as Android looks very vulnerable but to attack that market, but Jolla needs to rein the price in to be […]