RFM 2013 Top 5 – Part 3 – Android vulnerable

Android begins to lose share to Microsoft.

• In terms of unit growth, the best is probably over for smartphones and that is being used as a sign that things are beginning to settle down.
• However, to me the reality looks very different.
• This is because Android looks like the default choice for a smartphone user who can’t or won’t afford an iPhone.
• This means to me that many of these devices are bought because they are cheap not because they are good smartphones.
• The evidence for this is everywhere.
• Android is messy and difficult to get it to do exactly what you want in terms of applications, email etc etc.
• This is what I believe underpins the fact that Android devices generate far less traffic than the equivalent devices on iOS
• Lower usage implies much lower loyalty (see here) and a much greater willingness to switch if offered something better.
• I have postulated that an easy to set and use ecosystem is far more valuable to users than one that requires one to be a systems integrator.
• Furthermore, I see the possibility for integration on mobile devices to become increasingly important during 2013.
• Apple does one of these much better than Android but importantly Microsoft does them both better.
• Apple is alone in its category but if Microsoft can come up with a compelling user experience at the Android price point then there is real risk that Android users start jumping ship.  
• This is one of the key trends that I believe could begin to emerge this year but remains dependent on Microsoft’s questionable ability to execute on its strategy.